摘要
为解决在山区村镇多灾种综合风险评估中忽略灾害间相互作用、对村镇防灾减灾规划指导缺乏的问题,提出基于GIS的多灾种耦合风险评估模型。本文以神农架林区为研究对象,选取山洪、泥石流和滑坡3种主要自然灾害为评价对象,从危险性、易损性两个方面,致灾因子、孕灾环境、承载体暴露性与敏感性、防灾减灾能力四个角度建立评价体系,基于ArcGIS 10.1空间分析技术进行多灾种风险耦合分析,利用风险矩阵完成综合评估。结果显示:神农架自然灾害风险高值区主要分布在林区西部和南部大部分地区、东北部局部地区。该模型提高了多灾种耦合风险评估的准确度、角度精度,改进后的模型具有较高的实用价值。
A comprehensive multi-hazard risk assessment model,based on GIS,was developed in order to deal with the interactions of multiple hazards of mountain area and give effective guidance on country disaster prevention and mitigation planning. In this paper,the Shennongjia Forestry District was selected as the research area. Three main natural disasters（ mountain torrent,debris flow and landslide） were selected as evaluation object. Evaluation framework was established from the two aspects,risk and vulnerability,and four angles which are disaster factors,disaster environment,bearing exposure and sensitivity,disaster prevention and mitigation capacity. Comprehensive assessment was performed by risk matrix and multi-hazard coupling based on Arc GIS geographic analysis technique. The result shows that the high risk area mainly distributed in the western and southern part of the forest. This model enhances the accuracy and the angle accuracy of the comprehensive multi-hazard risk assessment model,the improved model has high practical value.
出处
《中国地质灾害与防治学报》
CSCD
2018年第1期102-112,共11页
The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control
基金
国家科技支撑计划课题"村镇区域综合防灾减灾信息系统研究及示范"(2014BAL05B00)
关键词
多灾种风险
空间分析
触发耦合
云模型
multi-hazard risk
space superimposition
trigger-coupling events
cloud model
