摘要
人民币国际化进程中既有人民币"走出去"替代他国或地区货币的正向替代效应,也有被其他货币替代的逆向替代效应,且两种替代效应差异甚大。香港地区是人民币国际化进程中的"桥头堡"和"试验田",人民币在香港地区发生货币替代效应已呈常态化趋势。聚焦人民币在香港地区的货币替代效应,构建TVP-VAR模型,研究人民币在香港地区货币替代对人民币区域化国际化、两地经贸一体化、人民币币值稳定等的影响,分析不同替代效应可能引发的"特里芬难题""三元悖论"困境,并提出对应的政策选择建议。以期通过人民币在香港地区的货币替代研究总结人民币"走出去"的货币替代规律,防范各类风险,推进人民币国际化的同时保持经济和金融稳定运行。
In the process of RMB internationalization,not only does the positive substitution effect of RMB ＂going out＂to replace the currency of other countriesor regions exist,but also a reverse substitution effect replaced by other currencies,and the two kinds of substitution effects are significantly different. Hong Kong is the bridgehead and experimental field in the RMB internationalization process,RMB in Hong Kong has a normal effect of currency substitution. This paper focuses on the monetary substitution effect of RMB in Hong Kong,builds TVP-VAR model,Analyzes how the different substitution effects of offshore RMB in Hong Kong influence the regional andinternationalization of RMB,the cross-strait economic integration,the exchangerate stability and so on. This paper analyzes different substitution effects may lead to ＂Triffin problems＂,＂ternary paradox＂predicament and puts forward suggestions onpolicy choices under different substitution effects. These studies will help us to sum up the monetary substitution rule of the RMB ＂going out＂around the world,toprevent all kinds of risks,promoting the internationalization of the RMB while maintaining economic and financial stability.
作者
叶亚飞
石建勋
YE Ya - fei, SHI Jian - xun(School of Ecomomics and Management,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092 ,Chin)
出处
《经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第3期28-35,共8页
On Economic Problems
基金
上海市教育委员会科研创新计划人文社会科学重大项目"人民币国际化进程中的货币替代效应与政策选择研究"(2017-01-07-00-07-E00045)
关键词
人民币国际化
货币替代效应
香港地区
RMB internationalization
crrency substitution effect
Hong Kong
