摘要
结合1978年以来江苏省产业结构演变和区域经济增长情况,基于灰色关联模型对两者进行阶段性动态关联分析。结果表明:以第三产业发展为基础的产业转型的市场机制已经形成,可以借助市场这只无形的手,来实现生产要素由其它产业向第三产业的转移和升级,进而推动江苏经济发展和增长方式的转变;产业结构的演进很大程度上受三次产业间依赖关系的制约,过分重视某些产业的发展势必会带来产业间的非均衡发展;此外,金融业和房地产业在促进经济发展过程中发挥着不可替代的作用,维持金融市场和房地产市场健康稳定发展意义重大。总之,实现产业结构整体的合理化、高级化和产业间的均衡发展,应是江苏产业政策的最终目标。
Based on the theory of grey incidence,the dynamic relationship between the industrial structure evolution and the regional economic growth in Jiangsu Province since 1978 was analyzed.The results demonstrate that:with the tertiary industry development,the market mechanism of industrial transformation has been forming;by the invisible hand of the market,the factors can be made transfer to the tertiary industry,thus promoting the economic development and the transformation of the economic growth mode in Jiangsu;because the industrial structure evolution,to a large extent,relies on the relationship between three industries,the over-emphasis on the development of some industries will inevitably bring about non-balanced development of inter-industry;in addition,the financial and real estate sectors play an irreplaceable role in promoting the economic development,and so it is very significant to maintain their healthy and stable development.In short,it should be an ultimate goal for Jiangsu Province to upgrade and rationalize the industrial structure,and to balance the inter-industry development.
出处
《技术经济与管理研究》
北大核心
2010年第A6期31-34,共4页
Journal of Technical Economics & Management
基金
2010年度江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究指导项目(2010SJD790039)
2009年度徐州市科技情报研究计划项目"基于可持续发展的徐州产业结构调整战略研究"
徐州工程学院科研项目(XKY2007302)
徐州工程学院科研项目(XKY2009223)
关键词
产业结构
经济增长
灰色关联
区域经济
Industrial structure
Economic growth
Grey incidence
Regional economic
