摘要
在国际油价低位徘徊、国家大力发展绿色能源的背景下,天然气已成为中国油气工业的主营核心业务,其产量及消费量快速攀升,作用更加凸显。为了继续推动中国天然气业务的加速发展,在分析近年来天然气产业发展历程、总结天然气开发技术新进展的基础上,明确了我国天然气开发所面临的挑战,并从产量、需求量、进口量及未来天然气地位等4个方面对中国天然气工业的发展前景进行了展望。研究结果表明:(1)"十二五"以来,我国天然气消费量快速增长、供应多元化、储产量稳定增长、开发效益显著;(2)天然气开发技术在深层天然气开发、大型气田开发调整、致密气提高采收率、页岩气及煤层气开发、工程技术及开发决策体系等6个方面都取得了技术突破,创新能力显著提升;(3)随着开发程度的深入,受政策、环境的影响及地质条件制约,天然气持续规模效益开发将面临优质储量比例降低、气田开发成本升高、非常规气藏效益开发难度加大、上游效益进一步压缩、主力气田稳产能力减弱和市场竞争愈发激烈等诸多挑战。结论认为,未来我国将进入非常规气与常规气并重的发展阶段,天然气需求旺盛且消费结构呈现多元化趋势,天然气进口量逐年攀升且对外依存度不断加大,天然气将成为我国能源结构调整的主要增长点。
Under the present situation of low global oil prices and vigorous development of green energy resources, China has turned to focus on natural gas in oil and gas sector, both production and consumption of which are soaring high these days and the role of which is gradually prominent in energy sources. With the aims to help promote the further rapid development of natural gas business in China, this paper analyzed natural gas development process and summarized the new advances in natural gas development technologies in the recent years. On this basis, this paper analyzed the prospects of natural gas development in China in the four aspects of production rates, demand potential, import volume, future position of natural gas. The following results were obtained. （1） Since the 12th Five-Year Plan, natural gas business has been doing well with a rapid increase of consumption, diversified supply sources, steadily increasing of reserves and produc- tion rates, obviously satisfactory benefits from exploitation. （2） Breakthroughs have been made in technical bottlenecking problems with an improved innovation capacity in the respects of deep-strata gas development, large-scale gas field development adjustment, tight-gas recovery enhancement, development of shale and CBM gas, engineering techniques, and development strategies support system. （3） With the deepening of development, influenced by policies, environment concerns and geological conditions, continuous efficient natural gas development will face up with such challenges as lower ratio of quality reserves, higher gas field development expenses, more difficult benefit development of unconventional gas reservoirs, further compressed upstream benefits, less stable production capacity of those major gas fields, increasingly fierce competition in the energy market, etc. In conclusion, it is demonstrated that natural gas development in China will enter into a new stage of attaching equal importance to both unconventional and conventional gas; natural gas demand potential will be great and its consumption structure will become more diversified; gas imports will rise year by year, resulting in the vigorously increasing external dependency; and natural gas will become the main growth engine in the process of energy structure adjustment.
作者
贾爱林
Jia Ailin(PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration ＆ Development, Beijing 100083, Chin)
出处
《天然气工业》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第4期77-86,共10页
Natural Gas Industry
基金
国家科技重大专项“大型油气田及煤层气开发”子项目“复杂天然气藏开发关键技术”(编号：2016ZX05015).
关键词
中国
天然气
开发技术
产量
需求量
进口量
深层气
致密气
页岩气
煤层气
开发决策
China
Natural gas
Development technology
Production rate
Demand
Import
Deep gas
Tight gas
Shale gas
Coalbed methane
Development strategy
