摘要
流域是一个复杂的自然—社会交互系统。随着城镇化进展,流域洪水的量级、发生的频率以及产汇流机制均发生了变化,对经济、社会、生态产生了重要影响。流域洪水—社会多要素交互建模及风险动力学为洪水管理和决策提供计算和分析方法。讨论了两种流域洪水风险,即河道洪水风险和内涝洪水风险,研究了基于交互方程的多要素交互建模方法及其特点。在考虑了流域土地利用类型变化、堤防和排洪设施等因素的基础上,提出了流域洪水—社会多要素交互框架,研究了动态交互方程及内涝洪水风险与河道洪水风险的动态分析方法。
Watershed is a complex socio-economic and ecological interaction system. With the urbanization development, flood magnitude, frequency and pathway have been altered ; it in turn, has posted impacted on economics, society and ecosystem. To address the problems, watershed flood-society interaction modeling and flood risk dynamics were developed, which provided calculation and analysis methods for flood management and decision support systems. In this paper, flood risk on waterway and waterlogging are discussed. An equation-based formal modeling approach for multiple factors interaction system is pro- posed. The representations of the equations and their characteristics are discussed, Considering urbanization in watershed, levee flood defense and drainage, a framework of watershed flood-society multiple factors interaction is developed. The dynamic interaction equations and watershed dynamic flood risk are discussed.
作者
易善桢
Yi Shanzhen(Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074)
出处
《中国防汛抗旱》
2018年第2期46-49,55,共5页
China Flood & Drought Management
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41371368)
关键词
流域
洪水-社会交互
河道洪水风险
内涝洪水风险
动态分析
watershed
flood-society interaction
waterway flood risk
waterlog flood risk
dynamic analysis
