摘要
目的探讨宜昌市1992-2015年流行性脑脊髓膜炎(简称流脑)的季节性特征,为制定有效的预防和控制策略提供准确和科学的依据。方法应用集中度及圆形分布法,对宜昌市1992-2015年的流脑季节性分布进行分析。对圆形分布平均角的假设检验采用Rayleigh's检验,检验统计量Z=n·γ2。结果宜昌市1992-2015年流脑报告发病137例,报告病例一般集中在2-4月,其中3-4月报告病例为61例,占病例总数的44.53%,达到高峰。流脑季节性分布的M值为0.518 6(0.5<M<0.7),有明显的季节性;r值为0.485 1(Z=32.2406>Z0.05=2.995 7,P<0.05)。平均角对应的日期即流脑发病高峰日(3月23日),高峰期为2月2日-4月7日。结论流脑发病有较强的季节性,其发病高峰日多集中在2-4月份。因此,应继续保持流脑疫苗高接种率,并根据流行季节采取相关预防措施从而减少流脑的发生。
Objective To analyze the prevalence season and trend of meningococcal disease from 1992 to 2015 in Yichang and provide accurate and scientific strategies for disease prevention and control. Methods Circular distribution and concentration ratio were conducted to explore the prevalence characteristics from1992 to 2015. Rayleigh＇s test was used to identify the significance of circular distribution. Test statistics Z = n·γ2. Results One hundred thirty-seven cases were reported during this period,which were generally concentrated in the February to April. Among the reported cases,61 cases were occurred during March to April,accounted for 44. 53%. The seasonality meningococcal disease was very obvious（ M = 0. 5186,0. 5 M 0. 7; r= 0. 4851,Z = 32. 2406 Z0. 05= 2. 9957,P 0. 05）. The peak day of meningococcal disease was Mar 23 rd,while the peak period was from Feb 2 nd to Apr 7 th. Conclusion The prevalence season and trend meningococcal disease is obvious and February to April is peak period. Thus,high vaccine immunization rates should be kept and relative measurements should be taken to prevent and control an outbreak based on the seasonality.
作者
田滔滔
鲁芳芳
TIAN Tao-tao;LU Fang-fang(Yichang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yichang, Hubei 443003, Chin)
出处
《中国公共卫生管理》
2018年第1期77-78,82,共3页
Chinese Journal of Public Health Management
关键词
集中度
圆形分布
流行性脑脊髓膜炎
季节性
concentration ratio
circular distribution
meningococcal disease
seasonality
