摘要
目的建立武汉市登革热传入风险评估体系,评估登革热传入的风险等级。方法首先通过文献法,初步构建武汉市登革热传入风险评估指标体系;再通过德尔菲专家咨询法,优化指标体系并确定权重系数;利用风险矩阵法评估武汉市登革热传入风险等级。结果该指标体系建立了14个登革热传入风险可能性影响因素指标和6个登革热危害严重程度影响因素指标。德尔菲法专家权威系数均>0.8,咨询结果具有权威性;专家对登革热传入风险可能性及危害严重程度影响因素的意见协调系数分别为0.579和0.595(χ2=59.478,P<0.05),说明专家意见协调性好。根据指标总加权评分占最大值的百分比确定发生风险的等级(69.26%)为很可能发生,风险严重程度(49.70%)为中等,武汉市登革热传入风险等级为高危险度。结论建立的风险评估体系可用于武汉市登革热传入风险的评估;认为武汉市登革热传入风险等级为高危险度的结论符合实际。
ObjectiveTo establish the risk assessment system of dengue fever in Wuhan city.MethodsFirstly, the riskassessment indicator was constructed by literature review, and then the Delphi method was applied to optimize the riskassessment system and determine weight coefficient. Additionally, the risk assessment matrix was adopted to assess the risklevel of dengue fever.ResultsThe risk assessment indicator system consists of 14 indexes on the risk probability and 6 indexes on risk severity. The results of Delphi method consulting： the authority coefficients above 0.8 indicated that theresults of consultation were authoritative. Harmonious coefficient on the risk probability and risk severity were 0.579 and0.595 respectively（ χ^2=59.478, P〈0.05）, and were of statistical significance, which indicated that the opinions fromexperts were harmonious. According to the percentage of total weighted score in the maximum score, the risk probability（69.26%）is likely to occur, the risk severity（49.70%）is moderate, and the risk level of dengue fever import into Wuhancity is high.ConclusionThe assessment system can be used to assess the risk of dengue fever in Wuhan city. The risklevel of dengue fever in Wuhan city is high and justified.
作者
王莹
周良才
严薇荣
WANG Ying;ZHOU Liang-cai;YAN Wei-rong(School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, Hubei Province, China;Hubei Entry-Exit Inspection and Quarantine Bureau;Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention)
出处
《中国媒介生物学及控制杂志》
CAS
2018年第2期151-156,共6页
Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control
基金
武汉市卫生和计划生育委员会科研项目(WG16B04)~~
关键词
登革热
指标体系
风险评估
德尔菲法
Dengue fever
Indicator system
Risk assessment
Delphi method
