摘要
运用去趋势波动分析法(DFA)研究了川中丘陵区不同时间尺度的标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),揭示了该区不同时间尺度干旱指标的标度指数分布特征。结果表明:川中丘陵区及其站点各尺度的干旱指标标度指数总体均大于0.5,表现出了长程相关性,并且长程相关性随时间尺度的增大而增强。川中丘陵区不同尺度干旱指数的标度指数在空间上显示出从西南向东北逐渐递减的特征,其中宜宾和泸州是标度指数的高值区,高坪和遂宁是低值区。干旱指标标度指数在30.5°N^32.0°N出现了标度指数增大的现象,而在经向上标度指数总体随经度增加而降低。在与干旱有关的气象要素中,相对湿度和平均风速与SPEI表现出了一致性。该研究为揭示川中丘陵区不同尺度干旱的长程相关性和防旱减灾提供客观依据。
The detrended fluctuation analysis（ DFA） is applied to study the standardized precipitation evapotraspiration index（ SPEI） in different time ranges in central-Sichuan-basin hill region and reveal the standard index distribution characteristics of drought indexes in different time ranges in this region. The study presents that the standard indexes of the draught index in various scales in the region and stations all are greater than 0.5 generally,which represents the long range dependence（ LRD）. Furthermore,this LRD strengthens with the time scale increment. In space,the standard index of the draught index in various scales in the region gradually decreases from southwest to northeast,they are in Yibin and Luzhou at higher value zone and in Gaoping and Suining at lower value zone. The standard index of the draught index at 30.5°N ~ 32.0°N increases. The standard index above this longitudinal decreases with the longitudinal increase. In the meteorological factors related to draught,the relative humidity and the wind speed represent consistency with SPEI. This study provides revealing of the LRD of draughts with various scales in central-Sichuan-basin and disaster prevention and reduction with objective basis.
作者
詹存
程龙
卢锟明
ZHAN Cun;CHENG Long;LU Kunming(Northwest Engineering Co. , Ltd. , Xi＇an 710065, China)
出处
《西北水电》
2018年第2期9-15,共7页
Northwest Hydropower
基金
国家自然科学基金(41271045)
关键词
去趋势波动分析
标准降水蒸散指数
川中丘陵区
长程相关性
detrended fluctuation analysis （DFA）
standardized precipitation evapotraspiration index （SPEI）
central- Sichuan-basin hillregion
long range dependence （LRD）
