摘要
科学、有效的空管安全风险评估是进行安全风险管理的重要环节,是保证航空事业健康发展的必要前提。遵循计划（P）—实施（I）—检查（C）—处理（A）的程序,建立了具有针对性的空管安全风险评价体系。在评估过程中采用模糊Petri网方法,同时针对其节点过多和变迁权值主观性强的缺点,引入风险等级阀值和层次分析法（Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP）,运用逆向搜索的方法简约复杂的模糊Petri网,在保证能够找出威胁安全的主要因素和准确评估空管系统安全状态的前提下,简化后续计算和推理过程,快速得到评价结果,实例验证该方法有效、可行。
In accordance with the uncertainty and fuzziness features of the safety risk in the air traffic control,this paper intends to apply the improved fuzzy Petri net to model and evaluate the safety risk involved.To archive the purpose,we have,first of all,briefly introduced the basic principles of fuzzy Petri nets,which is blurred for the ordinary Petri nets plus the use of fuzzy mathematics.For it would be possible for the model to be able to describe the uncertainty and imprecise events effectively,even if there may exist ten groups of the meaning of the basic elements and two types of fuzzy production rules.Secondly,since the original fuzzy Petri net has shortcomings in producing too many nodes and strong subjective tendency of the changing weights in the evaluation process,it is likely to lead to the complexity of the evaluation process and inaccurate evaluation results.Therefore,we would like to bring about the risk level threshold,and try to simplify the redundant nodes of the fuzzy Petri net on the basis of the actual situation of the safety risk assessment in the air traffic control with the reverse search method.And,then,we have managed to use the uncertainty reasoning algorithm of MYCIN system and the maximal algebraic operation to heighten the calculation efficiency.Furthermore,we have also adopted the analytic hierarchy process（AHP） to increase the objectivity of the results of assessment.Besides,we have also taken concrete steps to improve the fuzzy Petri net method to evaluate the safety risk on the air traffic control to make the evaluation process more operational.And,last of all,we have built up a specific risk assessment index system so as to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the improved fuzzy Petri net,on the basis of tracing the historical data of the air traffic control safety accidents in a certain area.Thus,the improved fuzzy Petri net method and the analytic hierarchy process method have been found successfully utilized for the quantitative evaluation of the safety risks in the air traffic control,with all the results proven in agreement with the actual situation in the area.
作者
姚登凯
王晴昊
甘旭升
YAO Deng-kai;WANG Qing-hao;GAN Xu-sheng(Air Traffic Control and Navigation College, Air Force Engineer- ing University, Xi＇ an 710051, China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第2期413-417,共5页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家空管委科研项目(GKG201410005)
