摘要
提炼能源转型问题的要素,强调应重视政策制定者、能源供应者等不同利益相关者行为的影响;梳理能源转型研究的不同目的,即解释(explanation)、预测(prediction)、推演(projection)及优化(optimization)等,研究的要点及面临的挑战;归纳能源转型研究范式的现状与不足;提出基于技术—经济—行为统计学模型—真实人混合交互仿真及反复推演,协调优化转型目标与路径的新范式。其续篇将讨论能源转型研究中的不确定性因素及分析方法。
This paper extracts the elements of energy transition issue, emphasizing that the behaviors of stakeholders such as policy makers, and energy suppliers can impact the energy transition dynamic significantly. The main aims （explanation, prediction, projection, and optimization）, contents, and challenges of energy transition researches are presented, and the state- of-the-art research paradigms for energy transition and their limitations on addressing the challenges introduced by human behaviors are reviewed. Finally, this paper suggests a new research paradigm, hybrid simulation of technology-economic- behavior model with human participants, in which the energy transition target and pathway is optimized by repeatedly carrying out experimental economic simulation. The subsequent paper will discuss the uncertainties and analysis approaches in the energy transition researches. This work is support by Major Consulting Project of Chinese Academy of Engineering （No. 2016-ZD-07） and the Science and Technology Project of China Shenhua Energy Company Limited （No. SHGF-16-68）.
作者
舒印彪
薛禹胜
蔡斌
韩建国
凌文
陈新宇
M.B.MCELROY
SHU Yinbiao;XUE Yusheng;CAI Bin;HAN Jianguo;LING Wen;CHEN Xinyu;M. B. MCELROY(State Grid Corporation of China, Beijing 100031, China;NARI Group Corporation （State Grid Electric Power Research Institute）, Nanjing 211106, China;State Key Laboratory of Smart Grid Protection and Control, Nanjing 211106, China;China Energy Investment Corporation Limited, Beijing 100011, China;School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge MA 02138, USA)
出处
《电力系统自动化》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第9期1-15,共15页
Automation of Electric Power Systems
基金
中国工程院重大咨询项目(2016-ZD-07)“碳约束条件下我国能源结构优化研究”
中国神华能源股份有限公司科技项目(SHGF-16-68)“神华清洁能源战略决策优化模型研究”
关键词
综合能源
能源转型
能源系统仿真
框架模型
人类行为
混合仿真
comprehensive energy system
energy transition
energy system simulation
framework model
human behavior hybrid simulation
