摘要
测算1996—2015年新疆农业面源污染、化学需氧量、总氮、总磷的排放量及排放强度,分析各污染单元的污染物排放所占份额变化和排放贡献率,运用Tapio模型实证分析了新疆面源污染排放与农业经济增长的脱钩关系,并基于LMDI分解模型对新疆各污染物排放的时序变化进行因素分解。研究结果表明,新疆农业面源污染的排放量及排放强度变化可划分为"上升—下降—再上升"3个阶段,主要污染物是化学需氧量排放,主要污染单元是畜禽养殖和农田固体废弃物。新疆农业面源污染与经济增长的脱钩关系经历了弱脱钩阶段、负脱钩与扩张连接阶段、不稳定阶段;农业经济增长的规模效应、效益效应和效率效应对新疆农业面源污染排放具有不同的影响,规模效应的贡献整体不明显,效益效应扩大了新疆农业面源污染排放,而效率效应对农业面源污染排放起着阻碍作用,因此,降低单位农业产值的污染排放是新疆农业面源污染防治的主要途径。
This paper measures ANPSP（ agricultural non-point source pollution）,COD,TN,TP and total emission intensity in Xinjiang from 1996—2015,analyzes the changes in emission proportion of pollutants and emission contribution rate in each pollution unit,and applies Tapio model to study their decoupling relation between ANPSP and agricultural economic growth in Xinjiang,and uses LMDI model to decompose the temporal changes of each pollutant emission. Changes in emission volume and emission intensity of ANPSP can be classified as ascending-descendingascending stages with the major pollutant COD emission and the chief pollution unit livestock and poultry breeding andfarmland solid wastes. The decoupling relation between ANPSP and agricultural economic growth of Xinjiang had undergone weak decoupling,negative decoupling,dilating connection and unstable stages. The scale effect,benefits effect and efficiency effect of agricultural economic growth variably influence ANPSP that scale effect has little contribution,benefits effect expands the emission of ANPSP,but blocked by efficiency effect. To downsize the pollution emission of unit agricultural production is the leading path against ANPSP in Xinjiang.
作者
谢文宝
陈彤
刘国勇
XIE Wenbao;CHEN Tong;LIU Guoyong(School of Economics and Business, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China;Xinjiang Academy of Agricultural Science, Urumqi 830091, China)
出处
《资源与产业》
2018年第1期68-75,共8页
Resources & Industries
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71764029)
新疆维吾尔自治区研究生科研创新项目(XJGRI2016051)
关键词
农业面源污染
经济增长
脱钩关系
因素分解
Tapio脱钩模型
LMDI分解模型
agricultural non-point source pollution（ANPSP）
economic growth
decoupling relation
decomposition
Tapio decoupling model
LMDI decomposition model
