摘要
首先对基于成灾条件的滑坡危险性评价串并联模型进行了研究。通过对滑坡发生原理的分析,将滑坡成灾条件划分为触发因素系统(充分条件)和内部因素系统(必要条件)两类,滑坡只有在触发因素系统(充分条件)和内部因素系统(必要条件)共同作用下才会发生,建立了滑坡危险性评价的概念模型;通过分析电路三要素(电压、电阻与电流)与滑坡成灾条件的关系,首次建立了基于滑坡成灾条件的滑坡危险性评价串并联数学模型并定义了其算法。研究结果表明:模型能在结构和功能上表征滑坡的发生原理。然后,运用所建立的模型对研究区5·12汶川地震条件下滑坡危险性进行了评价。通过分析地震滑坡成灾条件,借助arcgis软件实现了对研究区地震条件下滑坡危险性的定量评价,并用遥感解译和实地调查的5·12汶川地震触发的滑坡数据对评价结果进行了检验。研究结果表明:73.56%地震滑坡位于极高危险区与高危险区,发生率也以极高度危险区与高度危险区较大,分别为0.319 4和0.185 0,滑坡发生率总体上随危险性等级的增加而增大,说明这种评价方法得出的危险等级与实际滑坡发生情况吻合。
Firstly, series and parallel model of landslide hazard evaluation based on disaster conditions are investigated. The disaster conditons of landslide is divided into trigger system （sufficient condition） and internal factors （necessary condition） according to the analysis of landslide occurrence principle. Landslide can occur only when the triggering factor system （ sufficient condition） and the internal factor system （ necessary condition） are com- bined together. A conceptual model for landslide hazard assessment is established. According to the analysis of three essential circuit elements （voltage, resistance and current） relationship with landslide conditions, a series and parallel mathematical model of landslide hazard evaluation is established for the first time based on disaster con- ditions and the definition of the algorithm. The model can characterize the occurrence principle of landslide in structure and function. Then, using the established model, the hazard of landslide in the study area is evaluated under the condition of 5· 12 Wenchuan Earthquake. Quantitative evaluation of landslide hazard in the study area is carried out through the conditons analysis of landslide triggered by 5· 12 Wenchuan Earthquake and the aid of Arc- GIS software. The evaluation results are tested by the data of landslide triggered by 5· 12 Wenchuan Earthquake, which is acquired by remote sensing interpretation and field survey. The test results show that 73.56% earthquake landslide is located in extremely high risk area or high risk area, and larger ratio of landslide area to evaluation area is also in extremely high risk area（0. 319 4） and high risk area（0,185 0）, and the ratio increases with the in- crease of risk level in general. In a word, the evaluation results are reasonable.
作者
田述军
孔纪名
樊晓一
韩培锋
孙新坡
TIAN Shujun;KONG Jiming;FAN Xiaoyi;HAN Peifeng;SUN Xinpo(School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang 621010, China;Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Conservancy, Chengdu 610041, China)
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第2期52-58,共7页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41401195
41272297
41472325)
四川省科技支撑计划项目(2015SZ0217)~~
关键词
成灾条件
串并联模型
危险性评价
滑坡
disaster conditions
series and parallel model
hazard evaluation
landslide
