摘要
采用现场实地调查、定点观测、遥感数据解译、区域地质资料收集和数理统计分析等研究手段,以中巴公路奥依塔克镇至布伦口乡公路段沿线的26条冰川型泥石流沟为研究对象,选取平均比降、岩石风化程度、年日照时数、年平均气温、冰川积雪面积、距断裂带距离、流域面积、坡度、流域最大高差等9项指标作为基本评价因子。运用主成分分析方法确定各个评价因子的权重和选取主导因子,再通过灰色系统计算出其各个评价因子与主导因子的关联度,提出泥石流危险系数计算公式,构建适合的泥石流危险性评价模型。评价结果表明:中巴公路奥布段沿线冰川型泥石流多处于中高度危险等级,主要分布在奥布段的下部。极高危险泥石流沟共有3条,占11.54%;高度危险泥石流沟共有10条,占38.46%;中度危险泥石流沟共有12条,占46.15%;轻度危险泥石流沟共有1条,占3.85%。泥石流危险性评价研究成果与2011—2015年间冰川型泥石流的实际灾情发生情况基本吻合,说明该评价模型是合理可行的,可为中巴公路奥布段及其附近区域泥石流危险性评价和公路的选线提供科学依据。
By using the methods of field investigation,fixed-point observation,interpretation of remote sensing data,regional geological data collection and mathematical statistical analysis,the 26 glacial debris flow gullies along the Aoyitake-Bulunkou section of Karakoram Highway are selected as the study object.Nine indicators are including average slope,weathering intensity of rocks,annual hours of sunshine,average annual temperature,glacier area,distance from the fault zone,drainage area,gradient,largest height difference of drainage selected as the basic evaluation factors. Principal component analysis method is used to determine the weight of each evaluation factor and select the dominant factor,and then the gray system is used to calculate the correlation degree between each evaluation factor and the dominant factor. The calculation formula of the hazard coefficient of debris flow is proposed and a suitable hazard assessment modelof debris flow is constructed. The evaluation result shows that（ 1） glacial debris flows along the research Highway are in moderate-high hazard levels,which are mainly distributed in the lower part of the Aoyitake-Bulunkou section;（ 2） there are 3 very high hazard debris flow gullies,accounting for 11. 54%,10 high hazard debris flow gullies,accounting for 38. 46%,12 medium hazard debris flow gullies,accounting for 46. 15%,and 1 light hazard debris flow gully,accounting for 3. 85%. The result of the study coincides with the actual situation of the glacial debris flow in 2011—2015,which shows that the evaluation model is reasonable and feasible,it can provide a scientific basis for debris flow hazard assessment and route selection along and near the Aoyitake-Bulunkou section of Karakoram Highway.
作者
邓恩松
魏学利
朱志新
陈宝成
胡磊
DENG En-song1,2, WEI Xue-li2,3, ZHU Zhi-xin1, CHEN Bao-cheng2, HU Lei4(1. School of Geological ＆ Mining Engineering, Xinjiang University, Urumqi Xinjiang 830046, China; 2. Xinjiang Transport Planning Surveying and Design Institute, Ummqi Xinjiang 830006, China; 3. Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Ummqi Xinjiang 830002, China; 4. First Engineering Co. , Ltd. of China Railway 21st Bureau Group, Urumqi Xinjiang 830026, China)
出处
《公路交通科技》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第5期16-23,共8页
Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41602331)
中国沙漠气象科学研究基金项目(Sqj2015015)
中国博士后基金项目(2016M602951XB)
新疆交通运输厅科技项目(2015-2017)
关键词
道路工程
危险性评价
主成分分析
中巴公路
冰川泥石流
灰色关联度
road engineering
hazard assessment
principal component analysis
Karakoram Highway
glacial debris flow
grey correlation degree
