摘要
以京津冀54个区和县级市为例,从高铁建设对区域均衡发展的影响入手,通过基于几何网络的最短路径分析方法,可以将京沪和京广高铁通车进行双重差分,检验高铁建成通车对沿线京津冀地区经济发展水平、产业结构和收入差距等的影响,并进一步通过三重差分研究其影响机制。结果显示,高铁建成通车使京津冀区域内交通获得改善的区和县级市的GDP增长率上升0.5%,人均GDP增加了0.32万元,但对产业结构的影响并不显著。与此同时,高铁通车使交通状况改善组与交通状况不变组的城乡收入差距扩大590元。此外,这种经济效应在消费水平高,教育和卫生水平高,区位优势明显的地区更加突出。通过分析可以发现,中央在统筹高铁网络建立的同时,应关注较落后地区因提速甩站而被边缘化的风险,挖掘高铁与普通铁路、公路运输等基础设施配套使用的潜力。
This paper looks into the impact of high-speed railway construction on the balanced development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region by examining its 54 districts and county-level cities. We use the shortest path analysis method based on geometric networks to categorize the jurisdictions within this region for our comparison. Using the DID （difference in difference, 双重差分） analysis, we study how the completion of Beijing-Shanghai and Beijing-Guangzhou high-speed rails influences the level of economic development, industrial structure and income gap along the railway line in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. We further explore the impact mechanism through the triple difference （三重差分） method. The empirical results indicate that the GDP growth rate of these districts and county-level cities with improved traffic in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region has risen by 0.5% , and its per capita GDP has increased by 3,200 yuan. However, the impaet on its industrial structure is insignificant. Meanwhile, the urban-rural income gap between the groups with and without traffic improvement has increased by 590 yuan. In addition, this economic effect is more outstanding in the areas with higher level of consumption, better educational conditions, better health systems, and more prominent geographical advantages. Our research identifies the unintended consequences of establishing an express high-speed rail infrastructure, for instance, the relatively remote areas are at the risk of being marginalized as trains pass by railway stations without stopping due to increased speed （提速甩站）. So we recommend that the central government should also consider building such supporting infrastructures as ordinary railway and highway transportation.
作者
刘怡
张宁川
周凌云
Liu Yi, Zhang Ningchuan , Zhou Lingyun(School of Economics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, Chin)
出处
《北京大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第3期60-71,共12页
Journal of Peking University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)
关键词
高铁
京津冀
双重差分
城乡收入差距
提速甩站
high-speed railway
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region （京津冀）
DID （difference in difference
双重差分）
urban-rural income gap
（train） passing by a railway station without stopping due to increased speed (提速甩站)
