摘要
目的:通过对世界卫生组织结核病数据库中我国结核病发病率等指标的分析,探讨我国的结核病流行现状与发展趋势。方法:对收集到的指标进行描述性分析与趋势分析,掌握其动态变化趋势与发展规律;采用动力学模型和线性拟合模型,模拟中国在2035年新发结核病病例数情况。结果:新发结核病病例(t=-48.03,P<0.01)、结核病发病率(t=-46.82,P<0.01)呈逐年递降趋势;结核病治疗覆盖率保持在87%;新发结核病成功治疗率无显著线性变化趋势(t=0.57,P=0.57);复发结核病成功治疗率整体呈现下降趋势(t=-3.82,P<0.01)。动力学模型预测和线性拟合模型预测至2035年新发结核病病例数分别平均下降42%和69%。结论:整体上中国结核病发病率和新发患者数均呈现逐年递减趋势。但若不采取其他更强有力的措施,很难达到世界卫生组织提出的2035年终止结核病战略的目标。
Objective： To explore the current status and development trend of tuberculosis epidemic in China through the analysis of the incidence of tuberculosis in the WHO tuberculosis database. Methods： The descriptive analysis and trend analysis were carried out. Number of new cases of tuberculosis in China in 2035 was simulated by the dynamic model and linear regression simulation model. Results： Number of new TB cases（t=-48.03, P〈0.01） and TB incidence rate（t=-46.82, P〈0.01） were declining year by year. The coverage rate of TB treatment remained at 87%. The cure rate of new TB had no significant linear change（t=0.57, P=0.57）, and the cure rate of replase TB decreased（t=-3.82, P〈0.01）. Number of new TB cases decreased by 42% and 69% respectively by the dynamic model prediction and the linear regression simulation model in 2035.Conclusion： The overall incidence of tuberculosis in China and number of new TB cases were decreasing year by year. But if we did not take any other stronger measures, it was difficult to achieve the goal of WHO＇s End TB Strategy.
作者
赵飞
杜昕
李涛
王黎霞
张慧
刘剑君
陈明亭
ZHAO Fei;DU Xin;LI Tao;WANG Li-xia;ZHANG Hui;LIU Jian-jun;CHEN Ming-ting(National Center for Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, China CDC, Beijing 102206, China)
出处
《临床药物治疗杂志》
2018年第4期1-3,8,共4页
Clinical Medication Journal
基金
北京市自然科学基金资助项目(7174323)
中国疾病预防控制中心青年科研基金资助项目(2018A104)
关键词
结核病
发病率
模型预测
tuberculosis
incidence
model prediction
