摘要
我国人口结构正步入老龄化时期。老龄化对出口技术复杂度产生积极和消极两方面的影响。从宏观层面看,人口老龄化对出口技术复杂度的影响是一个先上升后下降的倒U型过程,预计2020年之后的几年我国将进入其影响的拐点区域。老龄化对不同类型认知能力的密集度不同的行业的影响不同,对于"顺年龄认知能力"密集度越高的行业,老龄化越能促进该行业出口技术复杂度的提升;而对于"逆年龄认知能力"密集度越高的行业,老龄化越不利于该行业出口技术复杂度的提升。
The structure of population in China is entering the period of population aging. Aging can bring positive and negative impacts on export technological sophistication. From the macro perspective, the impact of population aging on export technological sophistication is in a trend of inverted U-type. It is estimated that during the years after 2020 China will enter the area of the inflection point which is under its influence. Aging has different impacts on industries with different cognitive abilities and different intensities; as for the industries with higher intensity of age-appreciating cognitive ability, ageing can promote the improvement of the export technological sophistication in these industries; while for the industries with higher intensity of age-depreciating cognitive ability, ageing is to the disadvantage of the improvement of export technological sophistication.
作者
高越
李荣林
GAO Yue;LI Rong-lin(Shandong University of Technology, Zibo 255000;Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China)
出处
《当代财经》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第6期92-101,共10页
Contemporary Finance and Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"国际生产分割条件下质量异质性企业的价值链升级研究"(15BJY064)
山东省社会科学规划研究项目"老龄化背景下山东省出口技术含量提升的动力机制研究"(18CJJJ04)
关键词
人口老龄化
出口技术复杂度
依赖年龄的认知能力
ageing of population
export technological sophistication
age-dependent cognitive a-bility
