摘要
2015年“811”汇改后人民币在岸与离岸市场的汇率定价权之争,深刻反映了央行在维护汇率稳定与推动人民币国际化间的政策冲突与取舍。本文采用门限VECM模型,实证分析“811”汇改后在岸离岸汇率联动关系的变动特征以及央行政策操作对二者关系的影响。结果表明：“811”汇改后人民币汇率定价权旁落离岸市场,离岸汇率引导在岸汇率大幅贬值。为重新掌握人民币定价权、维护汇率稳定,央行面临着汇率市场化、人民币国际化与维护汇率定价权的权衡取舍,当央行加强在岸汇率管制或紧缩离岸人民币流动性时,人民币定价权重回在岸市场,但代价是汇率市场化与人民币国际化进程的倒退。总结“811”汇改以来经验教训,最后该文提出未来协同推进汇率市场化与人民币国际化的相关政策建议。
The struggle for the pricing power of RMB exchange rate between onshore and offshore RMB market after the ＂811＂ exchange rate liberalization reform in 2015 has profoundly reflected the policy conflict and trade-off faced by thecentral bank between maimaining exchange rate stability andprormting RMB imemationalization. In this paper, the threshold VECM model is used to empirically investigate the features of the linkage of onshore-offshore exchange rates after the ＂811＂ reform and the impact of the central bank＇s policy operation on onshore-offshore exchange ratelinkage. The result shows that, after the ＂811＂ reform, the RMB exchange rate pridng power has been off to the offshore market, and the offshore exchange rate has led to the sharp depreciation of the onshore exchange rate. In order to regain the RMB pricing power and maintain exchange ratestability, the central bank faces the trade-off among exchange rate liberalization, RMB internationalization andpreservingexchange rate pricing power. As the central bank strenngthens its control over onshore exchange rates or tightens the offshore R.MB liquidity, Onshore market to regain the RMB pricing power, but at the costof theregression of exchange rate liberalizationandRMB internationalization. Summarizing the experiences and lessons since ＂811＂reform, we finally propose the policy suggestions ofcollaboratively prormting the liberalization of exchange rate and the imemationalization of RMB.
作者
王盼盼
石建勋
何宗武
WANG Pan-pan;SHI Jian-xun;HE Zong-wu(School of Economics and Management, Tongji University;College of Management, National Taiwan Normal University 200092 10610)
出处
《上海经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第6期79-90,102,共13页
Shanghai Journal of Economics
基金
上海市教育委员会科研创新计划人文社科重大项目“人民币国际化进程中的货币替代效应与政策选择研究”(2017-01-07-00-07-E00045)
国家社科基金研究阐释党的十九大精神重大专项研究项目(18VSJ007)、国家社科基金规划项目“国际货币体系改革与人民币的地位与作用研究”(10BGJ019)以及国家社科基金决策咨询点研究项目(13JCD009)的资助
