摘要
在全球应对气候变化和碳排放总量控制的背景下,无论是气候变化的严峻性、国家政治承诺的严肃性、抑或行业可持续发展的迫切性,都要求对碳市场风险进行识别、分析与控制。作为系列论文的首篇,分析了气候系统约束与碳市场的关系,从监管视角阐述了碳市场风险的产生机理,并通过实际案例对风险分析与控制进行了回顾。提出和设计了碳市场风险防控框架,通过定义"扰动凸显""参量违约"和"功能丧失"等关键特征,划分了碳市场风险防控的多道防线,并初步讨论防线内部优化及防线间协调思路。构建了碳市场风险防控问题的数学模型,指出需要在碳市场演化态势的沙盘推演、违约风险成本(或收益)评估等方面进行技术提升。基于自主研发的大能源系统动态仿真平台,能够有效支撑相关问题的研究。续篇将具体介绍按此框架对碳市场的混合仿真及决策支持。
In the global context of climate change mitigation and carbon emissions control, a carbon market risk analysis and control framework is in urgent need considering the seriousness of climate change problem, the solemnity of national political commitment or the urgency of sustainable development of energy industry. As the first part of a series of papers, this paper analyzes the relationship between climate constraints and the carbon market, discusses the mechanism of carbon market risk from a regulatory perspective, and reviews the carbon risk analysis and control practices in recent years. A multi line risk defense framework of carbon market is proposed and designed by defining key features such as ＂disturbance occurrence＂, ＂parameter violation＂ and ＂market malfunction＂ and the coordinated control optimization method under this framework is discussed. Finally, the problem of carbon market risk prevention and control is mathematically formulated. Sand table simulation and risk quantitative analysis technologies are suggested to be further improved to support carbon market risk analysis and control. The dynamic simulation platform for macro-energy systems （DSMES） developed by the authors＇ team can break through the barriers among different research paradigms, and effectively support the related research. Based on the defense framework proposed in this paper, simulation analysis and coordinated control results of the carbon market risk will be reported in the second part of the series papers.
作者
黄杰
薛禹胜
蒋超
薛峰
钱锋
HUANG Jie;XUE Yusheng;JIANG Chao;XUE Feng;QIAN Feng(NARI Group Corporation （State Grid Electric Power Research Institute）, Nanjing 211106;School of Automation, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094 , China China)
出处
《电力系统自动化》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第12期11-18,共8页
Automation of Electric Power Systems
基金
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2017YFB0903000)
国家电网公司科技项目"电力系统与相关外部信息交互影响的分析和应用功能设计"
中国工程院重大咨询项目(2016-ZD-07)~~
关键词
气候变化
能源转型
碳市场
风险防控
沙盘推演
climate change
energy transition
carbon market
risk defense
sand-table simulation
