摘要
结合《公路项目安全性评价指南》,从已发事故与潜在隐患2个维度构建城市道路交通安全等级评价指标体系。物元模型具有能够精确化识别、定量化反映事物质量综合水平的特点;云模型则具有将事物的随机性、模糊性有机结合的属性,可有效研究双重不确定性客观现象的普遍规律。鉴于此,构建两者相结合的云物元综合评价模型,并采用专家打分法确定其权重,用于城市道路交通安全的评价。以山东省17个城市为例,对其道路安全等级进行评价检验,结果表明：云物元模型可以实现定性分析和定量分析的相互转化;山东省约76%的城市处于＂良＂水平以上,个别城市处于＂中＂等级、1个城市处于＂差＂等级,基本符合山东省的实际情况,验证了该模型的有效性。最后,根据测算结果,针对各市区城市的道路安全等级差异给出具体改善其交通安全的措施与建议。
Based on the Guidelines for Safety Audit of Highway,the evaluation index systemfor city road traffic safety is established from 2 dimensions：accidents and potential risks.The matter-element model can accurately identify and quantitatively reflect the characteristics of comprehensive level of quality of things;the cloud model can incorporate the fuzziness and randomness of the attributes and can effectively study the common law of the double uncertainty of objective phenomena.In view of this,the comprehensive evaluation model of cloud-element is established,and the weight is determined by expert scoring method,which is used for the evaluation of urban road traffic safety.Taking 17 cities in Shandong Province as an example,the road safety grade is evaluated and audited.The results show that the conversion of cloud matter-element model can realize the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis;about76% of the cities in Shandong Province arein ＂good＂level,and the some few citiesarein ＂secondary＂level,and with only 1 city being in ＂poor＂level, which is consistent with the actual situationsof Shandong Provincewhichverifies the validity of the model.Finally,according to the calculation results,specific measures and suggestions are given to improve traffic safety aiming at the urban road safety grade difference.
作者
孙秋霞
孙一心
SUN Qiu-xia;SUN Yi-xin(School of Mathematics and Systems Science, Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266590, Chin)
出处
《公路》
北大核心
2018年第6期187-192,共6页
Highway
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目,项目编号71371111
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目,项目编号71501114
山东科技大学科研创新团队支持计划资助项目,项目编号2015TDJH103
关键词
交通工程
交通安全评价
云物元模型
城市道路
traffic engineering
traffic safety evaluation
cloud matter-element model
urban road
