摘要
结合68个国家2002—2015年制造业26个行业出口贸易额的数据,测算出中国制造业出口技术复杂度指数,分析发现中国资本密集型行业出口复杂度的增长幅度最为明显,但波动也较为剧烈.通过向量自回归模型进行实证研究,结果表明:人民币实际有效汇率与制造业出口复杂度之间存在长期均衡关系;从短期看,中国人民币实际汇率升值将降低出口技术复杂度,但从中期看,人民币实际汇率对于出口技术复杂度的响应为正向;人民币实际汇率对于出口复杂度冲击的影响在一开始表现出显著的负效应,但随着时间的推移影响逐渐微弱;人民币实际汇率对我国出口技术复杂度的贡献度明显大于出口技术复杂度对人民币实际汇率的贡献度,但两者均主要受自身因素的影响.
Based on the data of export trade of 26 industries in 68 countries from 2002 to 2015 in manufacturing industry,the technical complexity index of China＇s manufacturing exports is calculated.The analysis shows that the growth of export complexity of China＇s capital-intensive industries is the most obvious.However it is more intense.And the empirical research by vector autoregressive model shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between RMB real effective exchange rate and manufacturing export complexity.In the short run,the appreciation of RMB real exchange rate will reduce the technical complexity of exports.However,in the medium term,the real exchange rate of Renminbi has a positive response to the technical complexity of export;the impact of RMB real exchange rate on the impact of export complexity from the very beginning shows a significant negative effect,but its influence gradually becomes weaker with the passage of time;the contribution of RMB real exchange rate to China＇s export technical complexity is obviously greater than the contribution of export technical complexity to the RMB real exchange rate,but both are mainly affected by their own factors.
作者
赵海榕
吴庆春
ZHAO Hairong;WU Qingchun(School of Economies and Management, Fuzhou University, Fujian 350000, Chinas;TSL School of Business and Information Technology, Quanzhou Normal University, Fujian 362000, China)
出处
《泉州师范学院学报》
2018年第2期70-76,共7页
Journal of Quanzhou Normal University
基金
泉州市科技计划项目(2015Z119)
福建省中青年教师教育科研项目(JAS160448)
