摘要
针对东北部分地区水资源不足问题,以长吉经济圈为例,为实现该地区未来20年的水资源合理分配与调度,以2015年为基准年,采用灰色关联分析与多元线性回归模型相结合的方法,对2020及2030规划水平年进行需水量预测,分别提出供水效益最大化、经济效益最大化以及用水总量和用水效率双指标约束控制下的三种不同水资源配置方案,并利用MIKE BASIN建立水资源配置模型进行模拟。结果表明:在考虑河道生态基流量的基础上严格控制用水总量和用水效率双指标的方案可以满足研究区经济社会可持续发展长期用水需求;到2020年研究区总需水量为29.461×10~8m^3,只有吉林市工业缺水2 397×10~4m^3;2030年总需水量为33.122×10~8m^3,此时长春市工业、九台工业、双阳农业和工业、公主岭工业以及吉林市的工业和农业均存在少量的缺水,缺水量分别为750×10~4m^3、320×10~4m^3、228×10~4m^3、152×10~4m^3、460×10~4m^3、4 280×10~4m^3、1 070×10~4m^3,但相较于优化配置方案前已大大减少了缺水量。研究成果对该区未来20年的水资源可持续利用具有一定的指导意义。
Aiming at the problem of insufficient water resources within parts of the Northeast China and taking Changchun-Jilin economical circle as the study case,the water demand predictions are made for the target years of planning of 2020 and 2030 with the methods of grey correlation analysis combined with multivariable linear regression model by taking 2015 as the base year,so as to realize the reasonable allocation and dispatch in that region in the coming 20 years,from which three different water resources allocation schemes under the restriction of the maximization of water supply,the maximization of economic benefit as well as the dual-index of gross amount of water consumption and water-use efficiency are respectively proposed,while the relevant simulations are made through the water resources allocation model established with MIKE BASIN. The result shows that under the consideration of the eco-basic flow of river,the water demand for the long-term sustainable economic and social development of the study region can be satisfied through the strict control of the dual-index scheme of the gross amount of water consumption and the water-use efficiency. The gross water demand is to be 29. 461 × 10^8 m^3 in the study region by 2020,in which only the industrial water shortage of Jilin City is to be 2 397 × 10^4 m^3. The gross water demand is to be 33. 122 × 10^8 m^3 by 2030,while the shortages of small amount of water are to be there for the industries in Changchun City and Jiutai District,the agriculture and industry in Shuangyang District,the industry in Gongzhuling City and the agriculture and industry of Jilin City with the water shortages of 750 × 10^4 m^3、320 × 10^4 m^3、228 × 10^4 m^3、152 × 10^4 m^3、460 × 10^4 m^3、4 280 × 10^4 m^3、1 070 × 10^4 m^3 respectively,however,the water shortages are to be largely reduced if compared with those before the optimization of the allocation scheme. The study result has a certain guiding significance for the sustainable utilization of the water resources within the region for the coming 20 years.
作者
戚琳琳
张博
赖乔枫
冯茜
任宪军
梁秀娟
QI Linlin;ZHANG Bo;LAI Qiaofeng;FENG Xi;REN Xianjun;LIANG Xiujuan(, Key Laboratory of Groundwatwater Resources and Environment, Ministry of Education, Jilin University, Changchun 130021,Jilin, China;, National￣Local Joint Engineering Laboratory of In￣situ Conversion, Drilling and Exploitation Technology for Oil Shale,Changchun 130021, Jilin, China;, College of Environment and Resources, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, Jilin, China;, College of Earth Sciences, Jilin university, Changchun 130061, Jilin, China)
出处
《水利水电技术》
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第5期16-24,共9页
Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
基金
中国地质调查局沈阳地质调查中心"长吉经济圈地质环境综合调查"项目(121201007000150012)
国家自然基金(41572216)
省校共建计划专项--前沿科技引导类(SXGJQY2017-6)
关键词
长吉经济圈
MIKE
BASIN
合理配置
对比分析
Changchun
Jilin economic circle
Mike Basin
reasonable allocation
comparative analysis
