摘要
"一带一路"倡议背景下,东盟十国已成为中国推进"一带一路"建设的重要载体。基于2000—2015年东盟十国与非东盟10个比照国数据,建立扩展的贸易引力模型,分析自贸区的建立及其他主要因素对中国与东盟双边货物贸易的影响方向及程度。结果表明:经济规模每提高1%,则双边货物贸易额增加0.7246%;人口规模每提升1%,双边的货物贸易额扩大0.1971%;空间距离每扩大1%,则双边货物贸易额缩小0.0157%,但不显著;拥有共同边界对双边贸易影响方向不确定,且影响程度不显著;区域贸易组织的正向影响程度高度显著,在其他影响因素不变的情况下,中国与东盟内国家比中国与非东盟国家间的货物贸易多0.4063%。中国可通过发展本国经济、积极参加区域贸易组织和调整经济发展结构来提高双边贸易。
Under the background of the "Belt and Road" initiative, the ASEAN countries have become important carriers in promoting China's"Belt and Road"construction. Based on the 2000-2015 data comparing 10 ASEAN countries with 10 non-ASEAN countries,an expanded trade gravity model was established to analyze how and to what extent the establishment of CAFTA and other major factors influence the bilateral commodity trade between China and the ASEAN countries. The results show that the bilateral trade in goods increases by 0.7246%, 0.1971% and 0.0157% for every 1% increase in economic scale, population size, and spatial distance respectively; the impact of having common borders on bilateral trade is uncertain and insignificant. The positive influence of CAFTA and APEC is highly significant. When the other factors remain the same, China's commodity trade with ASEAN countries are 0.4063% more than with non-ASEAN countries. China can increase the bilateral trade with the ASEAN countries through developing its own economy, ac-tively participating in regional trade organizations, and adjusting its economic structure.
出处
《江汉大学学报（社会科学版）》
2018年第3期78-86,共9页
Journal of Jianghan University(Social Science Edition)
基金
"湖北省省属高校优势特色学科群--城市圈经济与产业集成管理"建设经费资助项目
