摘要
目的利用肿瘤登记资料,分析我国癌症发病的趋势及年龄变化,为开展癌症研究、制定预防控制策略提供依据.方法选取全国肿瘤登记中心2000—2014年有连续数据的22个登记处癌症发病数据.利用Joinpoint软件对发病趋势进行分析,计算年度变化率（APC值）及平均年度变化百分比（AAPC值）.构建出生队列模型,并计算了1915—2014年出生的男性与女性的癌症发病率,并分析其发病趋势.采用并比较2000和2014年我国肺癌发病年龄构成.结果2000—2014年我国癌症发病率呈上升趋势,APC为3.9％（95％CI：3.7％～4.1％）,调整人口年龄结构后,AAPC为1.2％（95％CI：1.0％～1.4％）.不同年龄发病趋势结果显示,女性不同年龄上升幅度明显,APC在0.9％～6.0％之间.出生队列分析模型显示,男性60岁以上年龄组发病率呈现下降趋势,60～69、70～79、≥80岁APC值分别为-0.2、-0.3、-0.3,而0～29、30～39岁年龄组发病率上升幅度较快,APC值分别为3.5、2.0.女性60岁以下人群发病率上升较快,0～29、30～39、40～49、50～59岁年龄组APC值分别为5.7、6.0、3.4、2.9.2000—2014年我国人群癌症发病平均年龄平均每年上升约0.11岁,调整人口年龄结构后,平均每年下降0.13岁.结论中国癌症发病总体呈现发病年龄前移的趋势,女性比男性趋势更明显.
Objective To analyze the trends of cancer incidence and age changes in China with using cancer registration data, and to provide evidence for the development of cancer prevention and control. Methods Twenty-two cancer registries with continuous （2000-2014） data were selected. The incidence of different sex and regional population, the standardized incidence rate by Chinese population, the average annual change percentage （AAPC） and annual change percentage（APC） were calculated. Age-period-cohort model were used to analyze the changes of cancer incidence, age-adjusted mean ages. The age-standardized proportion of 2000 and 2014 with were compared. Results The cancer incidence in China increased by 3.9%（95%CI：3.7%-4.1%） from 2000 to 2014 in APC, and the age-standardized incidence rate increased by 1.2%（95%CI：1.0%-1.4%） in AAPC. The age-specific incidence showed that each age groups increased significantly in female, ranged between 0.9% to 6.0%. The APC in male aged from 60 years old showed decline trend, the APC in 60-69,70-79,≥80 years old were-0.2,-0.3,-0.3,while in the population aged 0-29,30-39 years old increased dramatically, APC were 3.5, 2.0. Female under 60 also increased, and APC in 0-29,30-39,40-49,0-59 years old were 5.7, 6.0, 3.4, 2.9, respectively. The mean age of patients diagnosed with cancer were increased during the past 15 years, with about 0.11 years per year increased. However, the mean age of the patients diagnosed with cancer showed decreased trend by 0.13 years after age structure adjusted. Conclusion The trend of mean age for cancer incidence in China were getting younger than before, and the trend in women is more obviously than in man.
作者
郑荣寿
顾秀瑛
牵雪婷
张思维
曾红梅
孙可欣
邹小农
夏昌发
杨之洵
李贺
陈万青
赫捷
Zheng Rongshou;Gu Xiuying;Li Xueting;Zhang Siwei;Zeng Hongmei;Sun Kexin;Zou Xiaonong;Xia Changlfa;Yang Zhixun;Li He;Chen Wanqing;He Jie(Office for Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center/ Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100021, China)
出处
《中华预防医学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第6期593-600,共8页
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine
基金
国家自然科学基金（81602931）
科技基础性工作专项（2014FY121100）
关键词
肿瘤
发病率
横断面研究
趋势分析
Neoplasms
Incidence
Cross-sectional studies
Trend analysis
