摘要
目的估计2012-2017年北京市昌平区流感相关的超额流感样病例数(influenza—like illness cases,ILI)。方法使用昌平区二级及以上医疗机构ILI监测数据,分别拟合传统Serfling回归模型和调整Serfling回归模型,分年龄组估计流感相关超额ILI数。结果调整Serfling回归模型结果显示,全人群中,2012-2013年度的流行周为2012年的第52周至次年的第2周、2013-2014年度为2013年的第52周至次年的第6周、2014-2015年度为2014年的第46周至次年第3周、2015-2016年度为2015年的第52周至次年第14周、2016-2017年度为2016年的第47周至次年第6周,年均流行周数为10(范围:4.15)周。各年度流行周的超额流感样病例数分别为598(95%CI:207-719)、1517(95%CI:1070-1964)、2883(95%CI:2243-3522)、5027(95%CI:4067-5986)和3126(95%C1:2291-3961)例,年均超额ILI数为2630(95%C1:1976-3230)例,占同期总ILI监测数的58.7%。传统Serfling回归模型估计〈5岁、5-59岁和全人群的结果基本一致。结论调整Serfling回归模型对于超额ILI的估算结果较传统Serfling模型更为精确。每个流行季,流感的流行均导致数千人至数万人的超额ILI数和门急诊就诊量。
Objective To estimate the excess numbers of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases associated with influenza from 2012 to 2017 in Changping district. Methods The surveillance data of ILI cases from secondary medical institutions and above in Changping district was collected to estimate influenzaassociated excess numbers of ILI cases in different age groups using Serfling regression model and the adjusted Serfling regression model, respectively. Results The epidemic weeks of influenza were 52^nd-2^nd in 2012-2013, 52^nd-6^th in 2013-2014, 46^th-3^rd in 2014-2015, 52^nd-14^th in 2015-2016 and 47^th-6^th weeks in 2016- 2017. The average number of annual influenza epidemic weeks was 10 (range: 4-15). The corresponding excess numbers of ILI cases attributed to influenza were 598 (95%CI: 207-719), 1 517 (95%CI: 1 070-1 964), 2 883 (95%CI: 2 243-3 522), 5 027 (95%CI: 4 067-5 986) and 3 126 (95%CI: 2 291-3 961) respectively. The average annual excess numbers of ILI cases were 2 630 (95%CI: 1 976-3 230) by the adjusted Serfling regression model, accounting for 57.6% of total ILI cases surveyed over the same period. Serfling regression model showed that the estimated results in age groups of less than 5 years old, 5-59 years old as well as in the whole population were consistent with the adjusted Serfling regression model. Conclusions The adjusted Serfling regression model was more accurate than the traditional Serfling regression model. The annual epidemic of influenza resulted in thousands of and tens of thousands of excess ILI cases and outpatient visits in Changping distirct.
作者
李飒
刘重程
高进玺
王瑞琴
蔡旭
金文军
唐雅清
Li Sa;Liu Zhongcheng;Gao Jinxi;Wang Ruiqin;Cai Xu;Jin Wenjun;Tang Yaqing.(Department of Infectious Diseases and Endemic Disease Control, Changping District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102200, China)
出处
《国际病毒学杂志》
2018年第3期174-179,共6页
International Journal of Virology
关键词
流感
回归分析
人群监测
超额流感样病例数
Influenza
Regression analysis
Population surveillance
Excesgnumbers of influenza-like illness cases