摘要
本文在传统贸易引力模型基础上构建了包含新疆与中亚五国综合交通基础设施水平和两地区铁路联通情况等变量的贸易引力模型,利用新疆与中亚五国2000-2015年共16年面板数据检验了这一模型,得出新疆与中亚五国综合交通基础设施水平每提高1%,两地区贸易量增加0.4%,以及当两地区有铁路联通时,新疆与该地区间贸易量会提高295.13%的重要结论。通过模型分析,还得出两地区地理距离对贸易量具有显著负向影响,新疆与中亚五国生产总值以及新疆总人口对这两个地区贸易量具有显著的正向影响的结论。在此基础上,提出了一些有针对性的政策建议以进一步促进新疆与中亚五国拓展贸易量增长。
At first, this paper constructed the trade .gravity model containing the variables of xinjiang and the five central Asian countries comprehensive transportation infrastructure level and two regional rail-way interconnectivity on the basis of traditional trade gravity model. Then, we test the model with a total of 15 years of panel data from 2000 to 2014, and concluded that when the level of xinjiang and the five central Asian countries comprehensive transportation infrastructure increase 1%, two regional＇s trade volume increased by 0.4%, and when the two regions＇s railway connected, the trade volume will be increased by 294.43%. In addition, it is concluded that the two areas of geographical distance have significant negative effects on trade, the xinjiang and five central Asian countries~ GDP and the population of xinjiang has significant positive effects on trade. Finally, this paper puts forward some targeted policy recommendations to further promote xinjiang and five central Asian countries＇ trade.
作者
刘越
闵路路
LIU Yue;MIN Lu-lu(School of Economics ,Anhui University of Finance ＆ Economics, Bengbu 233030, Chin)
出处
《青海师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
2018年第3期1-8,共8页
Journal of Qinghai Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition)
基金
安徽省哲学社会科学规划一般项目"农地‘三权分置’
农民增收和城乡收入差距研究"(AHSKYG2017D117)
安徽财经大学研究生科研创新基金项目"空间视角下交通基础设施对长三角地区经济集聚的影响研究"(ACYC2016107)
蚌埠市社会科学规划重点项目"新时代蚌埠激发民营经济发展活力对策研究"(BB17B001)
安徽高校人文社会科学研究重点项目"乡村振兴战略视阈下安徽农村集体经营性资产股份合作制改革研究"(SK2018A0441)
关键词
交通基础设施
铁路联通
一带一路
贸易引力模型
静态面板模型
Transportation Infrastructure
Railway Interconnectivity
One Belt And One Road
The Trade Gravity Model
The Static Panel Model
