摘要
作为深化改革和扩大开放战略中的核心环节,自由贸易试验区(自贸区)对经济增长的重要性不言而喻。本文基于2003年第1季度至2016年第1季度省级面板数据,利用双重差分法实证检验了自贸区对地区经济增长的影响。研究发现设立自贸区显著提高了地区GDP增长率,自贸区的经济增长促进效应存在明显滞后。利用反事实分析法进一步检验自贸区经济增长效应的地区异质性,发现上海和广东自贸区的经济增长促进效应明显,表现为对第三产业的促进效应;天津和福建自贸区的经济增长促进效应不明显,但对第二产业的促进效应明显;自贸区的经济增长促进效应都具有明显的滞后性,这一点在对第二产业和第三产业的促进效应上都有体现。
As a core step of deepening reform and expanding opening-up strategy ,the importance of the Pilot Free Trade Zones （PFTZs） to economic growth is self-evident.Based on the provincial panel data from 2003Q1 to 2016Q1, this paper validates the influence of PFTZs on regional economic growth by DID method. The empirical results show that the establishment of PFTZs has significantly increased the regional GDP growth rate and the economic growth promotion effects of PFTZs are significant time- lag. Using counterfactual analysis to further test the regional heterogeneity of the economic growth promotion effects and the results show that the economic growth promotion effects of Shanghai and Guangdong PFTZs are significant, which reflected on the promotion effects on tertiary industry. The economic growth promotion effects of Tianjin and Fujian PFTZs are not significant but the promotion effects on secondary industry are significant. The economic growth promotion effects of all the PFTZs are significant time-lag, which reflected on the promotion effect on both secondary and tertiary industry.
作者
叶修群
Ye Xiuqun(School of Business, Jiangxi Normal Universit)
出处
《经济评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第4期18-30,共13页
Economic Review
基金
非常感谢匿名审稿人及编辑部提出的宝贵意见.当然文责自负.
