摘要
采用协整检验、误差修正模型、Granger因果关系等计量经济学方法,基于2006至2016年的时间序列数据,探寻我国消费结构升级与体育产业发展的互动关系。研究表明:(1)居民消费结构升级通过提升体育消费水平影响体育产业发展,体育产业通过政策引导和市场培育影响居民消费结构升级;(2)我国居民消费结构升级与体育产业发展之间存在线性相关关系(P<0.01);(3)我国消费结构升级与体育产业发展之间存在协整关系,并具有体育产业增长1%,城镇消费结构升级0.0687%、农村消费结构升级0.1124%的互动关系;(4)我国消费结构升级与体育产业发展之间不存在短期均衡关系和双向的Granger因果关系;(5)我国消费结构升级与体育产业发展之间存在从短期非均衡向长期均衡转变的过程。基于此,提出相关建议。
Adopting co-integration test, error correction model, Granger causality and other methods, based on the time series datafrom 2006 to 2016, this paper explored the interaction between the upgrading of consumption structure and the development ofsports industry. The research showed that： （l）the upgrading of the consumption structure of residents affected the developmentof sports industry by improving the sports consumption level, and the sports industry affected the upgrading of the consumptionstmcture through policy guidance and market cultivation; （2）there was a linear correlation between the upgrading of consumptionstructure and the development of sports industry in China （P 〈0.01）; （ 3）there was a cointegration relationship between the upgradingof the consumption structure and the development of sports industry in China, and the dynamic relationship between thegrowth of sports industry by 1 % , the upgrading of the urban consumption structure, and the upgrading of the rural consumptionstructure by 0.1124% ; （4） there was no short-term equilibrium relationship and two-way Granger causality between China＇s consumptionstructure upgrading and sports industry development; （5 ） there was a transition from the short-term imbalance to thelong-term equilibrium between the upgrading of consumption structure and the development of sports industry in China. Based onthe above？ su ^estions were put forward.
作者
任波
黄海燕
REN Bo;HUANG Haiyan(l.School of Economics ＆.Management,Shanghai Univ.of Sport,Shanghai 200438,Chin;School of P.E.〉 Yancheng Yancheng Teachers U n iv.,Yancheng 224002,China)
出处
《武汉体育学院学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第6期64-70,共7页
Journal of Wuhan Sports University
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(17BTY012)
江苏省社会科学基金项目(17TYC001)
