摘要
本文从结构转型和金融危机两个方面解释中国劳动收入占国民收入份额的U形变化趋势。在Mao and Yao(2012)构建的三部门动态一般均衡模型的基础上,本文推导出第二产业就业人数占比的倒U形变化会导致GDP中劳动收入份额的U形变化规律。数值研究显示,在不考虑2008年金融危机冲击的情况下,中国第二产业就业人数占比的转折点将发生在2020年,而劳动收入份额的转折点将推迟到2030年。当考虑2008年全球金融危机对各产业TFP增长率的影响时,分段拟合的劳动收入份额则与实际数据高度吻合。
This paper provides an explanation for the U-shaped trend of China＇s share of labor income in national income from the perspective of economic transformation and financial crisis.Based on the three-sector dynamic general equilibrium model of Mao and Yao（2012）,this paper deduces that the share of industrial employment follows an inverted U-shaped curve and will lead to a U-shaped trajectory for the share of labor income.Our quantitative study shows that,without considering the impact of the financial crisis in 2008,the share of industrial employment would reach the highest point in 2020,while the share of labor income would do the same until 2030.When the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis on the sectoral TFP growth rates is taken into consideration,the fitted labor share becomes highly consistent with the actual data.
作者
刘亚琳
茅锐
姚洋
YALIN LIU;YANG YAO;RUI MAO(Peking Universit;Zhejiang Universit)
出处
《经济学（季刊）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第1期609-632,共24页
China Economic Quarterly
关键词
劳动收入份额
结构转型
U形规律
labor share
economic transformation
U-shaped curve
