摘要
根据历史上相似的暴雨洪水信息预测未来的洪水演化情势是实现洪水超前预报预警的一种有效途径。提出基于"量""型"相似指标、堆土机距离指标、暴雨分布相似指标的暴雨相似性综合度量方法,在历史场次暴雨中寻找相似暴雨及其对应的洪水过程,再根据暴雨量比值对典型洪水过程进行缩放,以此实现洪水的超前预报预警。根据实际的场次暴雨,生成理想暴雨过程样本序列,验证了所提出的暴雨多指标相似性度量方法的合理性,并以黄河中游窟野河新庙站为研究对象进行了应用。结果表明,提出的基于降雨相似性分析的场次洪水超前预报预警方法效果良好,是可行的。
Predicting the future evolution of the flood according to the similar information in historical rainstorm and flood is an effective way to realize advance flood warning and prediction. This paper developed a multi-index similarity measure method for rainstorm based on＂quantity＂and ＂type＂similarity indexes,the similarity index of rainstorm distribution and the earth mover＇s distance（ EMD）; searched the similar rainstorm process and its corresponding typical flood process in historical records and then scaled the typical flood process according to the ratio of rainfall amounts to achieve the advance warning and forecast of flood. The ideal rainstorm series generated from an actual rainstorm process were applied to validate the proposed approach,proving its rationality; and this paper used the method in Xinmiao Station of Kuye River,located in the middle Yellow River. The results show that the proposed flood forecasting method based on rainfall similarity analysis is effective and feasible.
作者
肖章玲
梁忠民
刘晓伟
刘龙庆
李彬权
胡义明
XIAO Zhangling1,LIANG Zhongmin1,LIU Xiaowei2,LIU Longqing2,LI Binquan1,HU Yiming1(1. College of Hydrolog^^ and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;2. Hydrological Bureau,YRCC,Zhengzhou 450004,Chin)
出处
《人民黄河》
CAS
北大核心
2018年第6期20-23,28,共5页
Yellow River
基金
水利部公益性行业科研专项(201501004)
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0402706)
国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(41730750)
关键词
“量”相似
“型”相似
堆土机距离
相似性理论
超前预报预警
洪水
“quantity” similarity
“type” similarity
earth mover＇s distance
similarity theory
advance warning and prediction
flood
