摘要
为了准确地评估机场容量,考虑评估中证据冲突时D-S证据理论的完备性,提出了一种新的证据组合方法,并引入到动态容量评估中。该方法不改变D-S证据理论的融合规则,引入证据可信度的概念。基于证据间存在的相容性及排斥性,把证据分为可信部分和不可信部分并分别进行数据处理,运用D-S证据理论融合数据。由此建立基于处理冲突证据的D-S改进算法机场动态容量预测模型,并将该模型应用在国内某机场的动态容量预测过程中进行验证。实验结果表明:该方法可以有效处理容量评估过程中的冲突证据,优化后的可信度提高了0.166 9,降低了评估过程中的主观性和空中交通管理决策的风险。
In order to accurately assess the capacity of the airport,considering the completeness of D-S evidence theory in the evidence confilt during the assessment,a new evidence combination method was proposed and introduced into dynamic capacity assessment.The D-S evidence theory fusion rules was not changed in the method and the concept of evidence reliability was introduced.Based on compatibility and exclusion,the evidence was divided into trusted part and unreliable part,and finally D-S evidence theory was used to fuse the data.Based on the D-S improvement algorithm,the dynamic capacity prediction model of the airport was established,and the model was applied to the dynamic capacity prediction process of an airport in China.The experimental result shows that the method can effectively deal with conflict evidence,reduce the subjectivity of assessment and the risk of air traffic management decisions.The optimized credibility is increased by 0.166 9.
出处
《河南科技大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2018年第5期28-32,共5页
Journal of Henan University of Science And Technology:Natural Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(6160020490)
中央高校基本科研业务经费专项基金项目(2000340261)
关键词
容量评估
D-S证据理论
证据组合
证据冲突
证据可信度
capacity assessment
D-S evidence theory
evidence combination
conflict of evidence
evidence reliability
