摘要
目的评估2018年6月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果根据近期和既往传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,预计6月全国报告事件数和病例数较5月有所下降,事件类别主要以发生在学校的水痘、手足口病、流行性腮腺炎、其他感染性腹泻病等传染病事件为主。手足口病仍将处于高发季节。食物中毒事件将会增多,以微生物性食物中毒为主,有毒动植物及毒蘑菇中毒将明显增加。登革热仍有可能出现境外输入病例,云南、广东等高风险地区存在出现本地病例的可能。诺如病毒感染性腹泻处于低发期,但国内和国际旅行相关暴发风险持续存在。炭疽报告病例数会继续上升。刚果民主共和国埃博拉病毒病疫情以及印度尼帕病毒病疫情输入我国的风险低。结论 2018年6月我国大陆发生的突发公共卫生事件数将有所下降;需重点关注手足口病、食物中毒可能构成突发公共卫生事件的风险;一般关注登革热、诺如病毒感染性腹泻、炭疽、刚果民主共和国埃博拉病毒病、印度尼帕病毒病相关事件的风险。
Objective To assess the risks of public health emergencies,both the indigenous ones or the imported ones from foreign countries,which might occur in the mainland of China in June2018. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels,and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies,it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be lower in June than in May2018. The emergencies might be mainly the communicable disease outbreaks occurred in schools,such as varicella,hand foot and mouth disease（HFMD）,mumps and other infectious diarrheal diseases. The incidence of HFMD would be still high. Food poisoning events would increase,mainly caused by microbes. Food poisoning caused by poisonous flora and fauna and poisonous mushroom would increase significantly. The risk of importation of dengue fever still exists,and the indigenous transmission in high risk areas,such as Yunnan and Guangdong provinces,might occur. The incidence of infectious diarrhea caused by norovirus would be low,however,the risk of the outbreaks related with travel both at home and abroad still exists. Anthrax cases reported would continue to increase. The risks of importation of Ebola virus disease from Democratic Republic of Congo and Nipah virus infection from India to China are estimated to be low. Conclusion It is predicted the incidence of public health emergencies in the mainland of China would decrease in June2018. Particular attention should be paid to the public health risks of HFMD and food poisoning. Close attention should be paid to dengue fever,infectious diarrhea caused by norovirus,anthrax,Ebola virus disease in Democratic Republic of Congo and Nipah virus infection in India.
作者
孟玲
常昭瑞
王哲
李海蛟
牟笛
冉陆
李昱
黎丹
李樊
洪志恒
涂文校
倪大新
向妮娟
Meng Ling;Chang Zhaorui;Wang Zhe;Li Haijiao;Mu Diz;Ran Lu;Li Yu;Li Dan;Li Fan;Hong Zhiheng;Tu Wenxiao;Ni Daxin;Xiang Nijuan(Public Health Emergency Center,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;Division of Infectious Disease,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;National Institute of Occupational Health and Poison Control,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 100050,China;National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China)
出处
《疾病监测》
CAS
2018年第6期447-451,共5页
Disease Surveillance
