摘要
为提高水资源挣值模型过程监控中预警的准确性、明确预警类别、量化预警阈值,本文利用挣值模型预测理论进行分析计算。以挣值法3个关键指标的逻辑关系为核心,根据AC值的大小把预警类别划分为4类。以挣值偏差和绩效完工估算为指标,计算预警阈值,预警2类和预警4类适宜双绩效方法。结果表明、预警类别和预警阈值计算提高了预警的准确性,可为用水过程中定量预警提供技术依据。
Earned value model prediction theory is utilized for analysis and calculation in order to improve the accuracy of early warning in water resources earned value model process monitoring,clarify the category of early warning,quantify early warning threshold. The logic relation of three key indicators of earned value method is regarded as the core. Early warning categories are divided into four categories according to AC value. Earned value deviation and performance completion are adopted as indicators for calculating early warning thresholds. Early warning category 2 and early warning category 4 are suitable for double-performance method. It is proved that early warning category and early warning threshold calculation can improve the accuracy of early warning, which can provide technical basis for quantitative early warning in water consumption process.
作者
唐雷彬
杜中
TANG Leibin1;DU Zhong2(1. Liaoning Hydrographic Bureau, Shenyang 110003, China ; 2. Liaoning Dandong Hydrographic Bureau, Dandong 118001, Chin)
出处
《水资源开发与管理》
2018年第6期19-22,共4页
Water Resources Development and Management
关键词
水资源挣值模型
预警阈值
东港灌区
water resources earned value model
early warning threshold
Donggang Irrigation District
