摘要
研究变化环境下干旱区内陆河流以径流为主要指征的水文循环过程及其变化,对于认知水文机理,应对径流变化意义重大。选取乌伦古河二台水文站1959~2015年57年长系列实测月径流资料,采用年内分配完全调节系数C_r、年内分配不均匀系数C_n、相对变化幅度Cm、集中度Cd、集中期D、年际(年代际)径流均值、最大流量、最小流量、年际极值比以及C_v等多指标,运用Mann-Kendall法、累积距平法、R/S法等多方法,在揭示叶尔羌河径流长期演变规律基础上,采用非线性分析方法——启发式分割算法进行径流序列的变异特征诊断,并进行归因分析。结果显示:(1)乌伦古河径流受冰川融水影响年内分布呈"单峰型",主要集中于夏季5~8月,占年径流总量的70%,反映年内分配特征的各指标,如C_r、C_n、C_m、C_d和D,均呈下降趋势,特别是进入2000年后下降趋势较为明显,其中,C_r、C_d和D指标下降趋势显著,表明径流序列年内分配特征趋于均匀化;(2)乌伦古河径流序列年际变化趋势呈减少趋势,减少趋势不显著,且呈负持续性(Hurst=0.35),具有两个明显的丰枯交替周期,即1961~1973年及1974~1994年;(3)针对传统检验方法——Mann-Kendall法诊断乌伦古河二台站长系列(1959~2015年)径流突变点时出现多个虚假变异点的缺陷,采用非线性方法——启发式分割算法(BG法)诊断乌伦古河二台水文站长系列(1959~2015年)径流序列变异点,得出乌伦古河径流序列变异点为1962年。成果有助于了解变化环境下流域尺度的水文过程演变和水文响应规律,指导流域水资源规划与管理。
It is of great significance to study the hydrological cycle process and its changes,which are mainly indicted by runoff in the arid inland in the changing environment,to deal with the change of runoff. The monthly series of monthly runoff data from 1959 to 2015 in Wulungu River were collected,the annual distribution of fullscale adjustment coefficient Cr,annual distribution of non-uniformity coefficient Cn,relative change range Cm,concentration Cd,concentration period D,year（ Interdecadal） runoff average,maximum flow,minimum flow,interannual extremum ratio and Cvare used to reveal the long-term evolution of the Yarkand River runoff by using MannKendall method,cumulative distance leveling method and R/S method On the basis of the law,the non-linear analysis method-heuristic segmentation algorithm was used to diagnose the variation of runoff series and the attribution was analyzed. The results showed that：（1） The distribution of Wulungu River runoff affected by glacier melt during the year was ＂unimodal＂,mainly concentrated in the summer of May to August,accounting for 70% of the total annual runoff,reflecting the indicators of distribution characteristics during the year,for example,Cr,Cn,Cm,Cd and D all showed a downward trend,especially after 2000,the downward trend was obvious,of which,the decreasing trend of Cr,Cdand D index is significant,indicating that the distribution characteristics of runoff series tend to be uniform during the year;（2） The interannual variation trend of the Wulungu River runoff series showed a decreasing trend,the decreasing trend was not significant,and it was negatively persisted（ Hurst = 0. 35）,there were two obvious alternation cycles between 1961 ~ 1973 and 1974 ~ 1994;（3） According to the traditional test method—Mann-Kendall method to diagnose the runoff abrupt change point of Wulungu River Ertai Hydrometric Station series（ 1959 ~ 2015）,the segmentation method（ BG method） was used to diagnose the variation of runoff series in Erlungu River hydrological station series from 1959 to 2015,and the variation point of Wulungu River runoff sequence was 1962. The results help to understand the evolution of hydrological processes and hydrological response rules at river basin scales in a changing environment and guide the planning and management of water resources in river basins.
作者
蓝利
高凡
努尔兰.哈再孜
何兵
许应达
LAN Li;GAO Fan;NURLAN Hazazi;HE Bing;XU Ying-da(College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Xinjiang Agricuhural University,Urumqi 8300;Department of Hydrology and Water Resources,Ahay 836500,China)
出处
《科学技术与工程》
北大核心
2018年第15期6-12,共7页
Science Technology and Engineering
基金
新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金(2017D01A43)资助
