摘要
成本函数法是测算产能利用率使用较多的方法,包括将平均成本曲线最低点产出以及短期成本曲线和长期成本曲线的切点产出作为潜在产出标准。运用1996—2015年我国制造业面板数据和超越对数成本函数对我国制造业分行业的产能利用率进行测算,分别得到平均成本曲线最低点标准以及短期成本曲线和长期成本曲线的切点标准。结果表明,成本函数法和数据包络分析方法之间具有可比性,根据两种潜在产出标准得到的产能利用率的相关系数达0.981;成本函数法和数据包络分析法测算的产能利用率相关系数达0.868;我国制造业的规模经济效应尚有发挥空间;运用产能利用率动态标准判定产能过剩的结论与现实更符合,能够揭示我国制造业正面临的严重产能过剩问题;制造业产能利用率在1996—2007年间表现出顺经济周期特征,而2008年后在政府刺激政策下表现出逆经济周期的特征。2008年的政府刺激政策起到了延缓产能过剩爆发的作用,但未能从根本上解决产能过剩问题。
The cost function method is a method of measuring the utilization rate of the production capacity,including the lowest point of the average cost curve and the cut-point production of the short-term cost curve and the long-term curve as potential output standards. With two potential output definitions,output at the lowest point of the average cost curve and the tangential point between short-term cost curve and the long-term curve,the author estimates China＇s manufacturing capacity utilization based on translog cost function and panel data of China＇s manufacturing during 1996-2015. The conclusions are：first, the capacity utilization （CU） estimated by translog cost function and DEA are comparative;second,China＇s manufacturing industry does not make full use of economies of scale;third,the dynamic criteria of CU is more appropriate in judging excess capacity of China＇s manufacturing than the static criteria,and the result using dynamic criteria is consistent with outcome of previous studies,showing that there is serious excess capacity in China＇s manufacturing;and fourth,the characteristics of CU of manufacturing is pro-cyclical in the period of 1996-2007,however,under the government stimulus policy,it shows characteristics of counter-cyclical after 2008. This result shows that stimulus policy can only delay the outbreak of excess capacity but not the fundamental measure.
作者
夏飞龙
Xia Fei-long(Graduate School of CASS,Beijingl 102488,China)
出处
《中国流通经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第7期71-82,共12页
China Business and Market
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目"供需均衡视角下的中国潜在经济增长率测算及增长要素分析"(16CJL011)
