摘要
研究运输航空业减排节能目标控制问题。通过对运输航空业能源结构的分析,选择综合能耗作为减排节能规划目标,对其进行合理预测进而有效控制,来满足国家对企业能耗控制和用能决策的需要。运输航空业综合能耗历史数据具有非线性、非平稳等特点,而传统预测方法都是单纯的基于历史能耗数据的趋势外推,对数据的平滑性要求比较苛刻,并未考虑国民生产总值和在役机队架次等多种因素的影响,导致预测的准确性和精度不高。因此,针对上述问题构建了改进能源弹性系数和支持向量回归两种预测模型,从宏观趋势和具体因素两个角度,对其进行因果测算。仿真结果表明,预测模型的精度和准确性相对比较高,两种方法交叉检验后得到合理的减排节能规划目标。
The problem of emission reduction targets control in the aviation industry is studied. Through the analysis of the air transportation industry energy structure, comprehensive energy consumption is selected as the energysaving emission reduction planning target. In order to meet the needs of national energy consumption control and make energy consumption decisions, the comprehensive energy consumption is predicted reasonably and controlled ef- fectively. The comprehensive energy consumption＇s historical data of transportation aviation industry is nonlinear and non - stationary. The traditional prediction methods are based on historical data of energy consumption trend of simpie, and the requirements on the smoothness of data are relatively harsh. The impact of GDP and in - service fleet vehicles and other factors are not considered. So the accuracy and precision of prediction is not high. Therefore, aiming at this problem, two kinds of prediction models based on the improved energy elasticity coefficient and the support vector regression were constructed. From two aspects of macro trends and specific factors, the comprehensive energy consumption was calculated. The simulation results show that the precision and accuracy of the prediction model are relatively high, and the two methods can be used to obtain a reasonable energy - saving emission reduction target after cross checked.
作者
陈静杰
朱玉娟
CHEN Jing - jie;ZHU Yu - juan(College of Electronic Information and Automation,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China;Research Centre for Environment and Sustainable Development of CAAC,Tianjin 300300,China)
出处
《计算机仿真》
北大核心
2018年第8期36-40,共5页
Computer Simulation
基金
国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAC20B03)
民航局节能减排专项项目(DPDSR0010)
民航局科技基金项目(MHRD 201121)
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2010CB955401)
关键词
规划目标
综合能耗
改进能源弹性系数
支持向量回归
预测
Planning target
Comprehensive energy consumption
Improved energy elasticity coefficient
Supportvector regression
Prediction
