摘要
文章基于市场动力学模型,以多Agent理论为基本框架,构建售电公司客户选择概率模型,利用顾客满意度指数、转换成本、服务惯性等参数作为影响客户选择的主要指标;通过设定售电公司服务效用规则和客户选择规则刻画客户对售电公司提供服务的需求程度;通过全局信息的市场环境动态更新影响售电公司的服务效用和顾客满意度;通过多Agent框架模拟售电公司服务效用,根据客户选择规则最终得到仿真后客户选择的结果。仿真实验结果表明,不同类型的用户对于售电公司的盈利模式需求程度不同,普通居民用户对于电价的敏感性要高于某些大工业用户;当转换成本与服务惯性2个参数增加到一定值时,客户选择概率变化程度趋于平缓。
In this paper, based on the market dynamics model, the multi-agent theory is used to build the mathematical model of the customers＇ selection probability of the electricity retailers. The customer satisfaction, conversion cost, service inertia are used as the main indexes to evaluate the influence of the customers＇ selection; the customers＇ demands are measured to the provided services from the electricity retailers by setting the service utility rules of the electricity retailers and the selection rules of the customers; the influence of the electricity retailers＇ service utility and the customers＇ satisfactory degree is simulated by updating the whole dynamic market information; according to the customer selection rules, the service utility of the electricity retailers is simulated by the multi-agent simulation framework. The simulation results show that the different types of customers have various demands to the profitability models of the electricity retailers, where the demands from ordinary residents with the price sensitivity are higher than the ones of the other large industrial customers. This paper also concludes that the change inclination of the customers＇ selection probability tends to be flat when the two parameters of the conversion cost and the service inertia increase to a certain value.
作者
欧阳红
胡若云
孙轶恺
刘玉玺
林鸿
王发恩
范明霞
OUYANG Hong;HU Ruo-yun;SUN Yi-kai;LIU Yu-xi;LIN Hong;WANG Fa-en;FAN Ming-xia(State Grid Information ＆ Telecommunication Group Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100192,China;Electric Power Research Institute,State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Company,Hangzhou 310014,China;Economic and Technological Research Institute,State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Company,Hangzhou 310008,China;Central Substation of the 3rd Communication Cluster of Former Joint Staff,Beijing 100840,China)
出处
《电力信息与通信技术》
2018年第7期8-15,共8页
Electric Power Information and Communication Technology
基金
国家电网公司总部科技项目资助“服务电力体制改革的售电侧运营关键技术研究及开发”(SGZJ0000BGJS1600314)
关键词
市场动力学
多AGENT技术
售电公司
客户选择
电力改革
market dynamics
multi-agent technology
electricity retailers
customer selection
electricity reform
