摘要
基于贸易引力模型,利用1992—2017年数据对中美大豆贸易影响因素及贸易潜力进行分析。研究表明:中国GDP总量、人口数量对贸易额产生正向影响,美国人口数量与人民币/美元汇率对贸易额产生负向影响;我国大豆产量和政策因素对中美大豆贸易并不显著;中美大豆贸易潜力呈较为显著的周期性,但依然属于贸易潜力开拓型,还有较大的发展空间。我国需要协调大豆进口结构,实现大豆进口来源的多元化,消除过度依赖美国进口的负面作用,才能赢得主动地位。
Based on trade gravity model,this paper selects data from 1992 to 2017 to explore the influential factors and trade potentiality of the soybean trade between China and the U.S. The empirical results show that GDP and population of China have positive impact on trade,while the population of the U. S. and the exchange rate have negative impact on trade. The impact of China 's soybean production and policy factors is not significant. Although Sino-US soybean trade potentiality presents a relatively significant periodicity,it still stays at the development stage of trade potentiality and the bilateral trade has large space to expand. Therefore, only by coordinating import structure better and diversifying the sources of soybean imports can China eliminate the negative effects of excessive dependence on imports from the United States and win the initiative position.
出处
《河海大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第4期84-89,共6页
Journal of Hohai University：Philosophy and Social Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71373116)
