摘要
随着全球变暖趋势加剧,西南地区极端天气事件频发,对国民经济发展和生态环境保护构成了严重威胁。利用1960—2016年33个气象站点的逐日气温数据集,采用线性趋势、滑动平均、空间插值、M-K突变检验等方法,对贵州极端气温时空变化特征及影响因素进行分析。结果表明:贵州极端气温暖系列指数呈上升趋势,夏日日数、暖日日数、热持续指数、热持续发生次数的年际变化倾向率分别为:0.6d/10a、2.7d/10a、0.02d/10a、0.2次/10a;冷系列指数呈下降趋势,霜冻日数、冷夜日数、冷持续指数、冷持续发生次数的年际变化倾向率分别为-1.6d/10a、-8.0d/10a、-0.5d/10a、-1.0次/10a,进入21世纪后升温速度加快。极端气温表现出非对称性现象,冷系列极端气温指数变化幅度大于暖系列指数,其中暖日日数升幅最大,冷夜日数降幅最大,且与海拔关系密切。多数极端气温指数突变发生在19世纪末到21世纪初。厄尔尼诺对暖系列指数影响较大;拉尼娜对冷系列指数影响较大,在次年其影响程度达到最高水平。
With global warming, the extreme weather events in southwest China have become more frequent and the damage is also deepening, posing a serious threat to national economic development and ecological environment protection. Based on daily temperature data sets of 33 stations in Guizhou Province, spatial and temporal changes of extreme temperature and its influence factors were analyzed during the period of 1960-2016, by using the methods of linear regression, Inverse Distance Weighted （IDW） and Mann-Kendall（M-K） test. The results showed that in the last 57 years the climate of Guizhou is getting warmer and accelerating the trend in the 21st century. The extreme high temperature indices, i. e. summer day, the percentile value of warm day, the duration of warmness and the frequency of the duration of warmness have all increased, with the velocity of 0.6d/10a, 2.7d/10a, 0.02d/10a, and 0.2times/10a, respectively. And the extreme low temperature indices, i. e. frost day, the percentile value of cold day, the duration of coldness and the frequency of the duration of coldness have decreased, with the velocity of-1.6d/10a,-8.0d/10a, - 0.5 d/10a, and - 1.0times/10a, respectively. In addition, the extreme temperatures show asymmetry pattem. For example, the change range of extreme low temperature indices is greater than that of extreme high temperature indices, the tropical days and cold days have the largest variation. There is a close relationship between the extreme temperature indices and altitude. Moreover, most abrupt change of climate occurred in the late 19th and early 2000s. El Nino has a significant impact on the extreme warm series index, and La Nina has a greater influence on the extreme cold series index. The impact of La Nina on the extreme cold series index reached its highest level in the following year.
作者
朱大运
熊康宁
肖华
ZHU Dayun;XlONG Kangning;XIAO Hua(School of Karst Science,Guizhou Normal University,Guiyang 550001,China;State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertfication Control,Guiyang 550001,China)
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第8期1672-1683,共12页
Resources Science
基金
贵州省国内一流学科建设项目(黔科教研发[2017]85号)
贵州省科学技术基金(黔科合基础[2016]1101)
贵州省科技支撑计划(黔科合支撑[2018]2777)
关键词
极端气温指数
时空变化特征
ENSO
贵州省
extreme temperature indices
spatio-temporal characteristics
ENSO
Guizhou
