摘要
利用格点气象要素预报、NDSI指数、DEM数据和社会经济数据,依据自然灾害风险理论,构建畜牧业雪灾综合风险预测模型。使用GIS栅格计算工具计算未来一旬平均雪灾综合风险指数。结果与致灾因子分布基本吻合,实际情况基本相符。该研究使格点预报、牧业生产活动、社会经济条件等因素有机结合,结果科学性、针对性强,能有效提升气象服务效果,是牧业雪灾风险预测的积极探索。
Based on grid meteorological predict element,NDSI index,DEM data and socio-econonffc data,the refined prediction of snow disaster risking of animal husbandPy was constructed by the theory of natural disaster risking. The GIS raster computing tool was used to calculate the average risk of snow disaster in the next ten days. The results are consistent with the distribution of disaster causing factors, and the actual situation is matching basically. However, the lack of refined industrial struetm＇e data and livestock distribution data has great influence on aeem＇aey, which is an important drawback that models need to solve re＇gently. Tiffs study combines the factors as the grid prediction, the animal husbandry production activities and tire soeio- economic conditions. Tire results are scientific and pertinent, and can effectively improve the meteorological service efteet, it is a positive exploration of prediction of the risk of snow disaster in animal husbandry.
作者
哈斯塔木嘎
Hasitamuga(Xilingol Meteorological Bureau,Xilinhot 026000,Chin)
出处
《北方农业学报》
2018年第4期95-100,共6页
Journal of Northern Agriculture
基金
内蒙古气象局青年基金项目(nmqnqx201707)
关键词
畜牧业
雪灾风险
精细化预测
Animal husbandry
Snow disaster risking
Refined prediction
