摘要
本文根据九寨沟水文站逐月流量和前期逐月74项环流因子、北太平洋格点海温,遴选出相关性较高且稳定的因子作为备选因子,利用逐步多元回归方法再次剔选预报因子,建立预报模型。对1966—2012年汛期各月的流量进行拟合和检验,预报结果可为白水江流域梯级电站水资源调度提供参考。
Stable factors with high relatively correlation are selected as alternative factors according to monthly flow capacity of Jiuzhaigou Hydrological Station, former stage monthly 74 circulation factor and lattice sea temperature of North Pacific Sea in the paper. Multiple stepwise regression equation is utilized for re-electing predictors, and forecast model is set up. Flow capacity- of all months during flood seasons from 1966 to 2012 is fit and checked, and the forecast results can provide reference for water resources dispatching of cascade power stations in Baishuijiang River Basin.
作者
程珂
范瑞琪
吴付华
CHENG Ke;FAN Ruiqi;WU Fuhua(Chengdu Research Institute of Investigation and Design of China Electrical Engineering Group,Chengdu 610072,China)
出处
《水资源开发与管理》
2018年第8期38-46,共9页
Water Resources Development and Management
关键词
中长期水文预报
74项环流因子
北太平洋格点海温
逐步多元回归
mediunm and long-term hydrological forecast
74 circulation factors
North Pacific lattice sea temperature
nmltiple stepwise regression
