摘要
选取1978—2015年福建省的能源消耗与GDP数据,并综合运用Tapio脱钩模型与计量经济模型对福建省能源消耗与经济增长关系进行实证研究。研究结果表明:(1)研究期内福建省大多数时期处于弱脱钩状态,但尚未实现完全脱钩,经济增长仍然对能源消耗具有较强的依赖性。(2)二者存在长期的、相互促进的正向协整关系,但能源对经济的促进作用趋于减弱,反之趋于增强。(3)存在经济增长到能源消耗的单向因果关系,经济持续增长会扩大对能源消耗的需求。
This article selects the data of energy consumption and GDP of Fujian province from 1978 to 2015 to do an empirical study on the relationship between the energy consumption and economic growth of Fujian province with the integrated employment of Tapio decoupling model and econometric model.The results show that most of the period of Fujian province was in a weak decoupling state,but not completely decoupled,and the economic growth was still strongly dependent on the energy consumption during the study period.Second,there exists a long-term and mutually reinforcing positive co-integration relationship between the two mentioned subjects,however,the promotion of energy to the economy tends to be weaker and vice versa.Thirdly,there is a one-way cause-and-effect relationship between the economic growth and the energy consumption,and the sustained economic growth would increase the demand for energy consumption.
作者
季祖强
JI Zu-qiang(Fuzhou University of International Studies and Trade,Fuzhou Fujian 350202,China)
出处
《衡阳师范学院学报》
2018年第3期107-111,共5页
Journal of Hengyang Normal University
基金
福建省社科规划重大项目"新常态下福建经济保持中高速增长的难点及其对策研究"(FJ2017YHQZ040)
