摘要
城镇化质量是城镇化进程中反映城镇化优劣程度的综合概念,衡量的是城镇化与生态系统各组成要素的发展质量与协调程度。利用变异系数法和GM(1,1)模型,对长江经济带11省市城镇化质量进行综合评价和预测,研究结果表明:长江经济带区域城镇化质量总体上不高。从时间维度看,2010~2016年长江经济带区域城镇化质量及其分维度城镇化、生态环境综合评价都呈上升态势,其中城镇化质量及其分维度城镇化区域差异都呈现扩大态势,而生态环境区域差异呈现减小趋势;从空间维度上看,2010~2016年长江经济带城镇化质量及其分维度城镇化发展呈现"东部区域优于中西部区域"的空间特征,而生态环境发展呈现"中西部区域优于东部区域"的反向空间特征。进一步对2017~2022年城镇化质量进行预测发现,长江经济带城镇化质量将呈现稳步上升态势。
The quality of urbanization is a comprehensive concept that reflects the excellence degree of urbanization in the process of urbanization. It measures the quality and coordination of the development of urbanization and ecosystem components. Using variation coefficient method and the GM （1,1） model, this paper makes comprehensive evaluation and prediction of the urbanization quality of the eleven provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The findings show that the urbanization quality of the Yangtze River Economic Belt region is generally not high. From the time dimension, the urbanization quality of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in 2010-2016 and its sub-dimension urbanization and comprehensive evaluation of the ecological environment are on the rise, and the urbanization quality and regional differences in sub--dimension urbanization are showing an expansion, but there is a decrease in the regional differences in ecological environment. From the spatial dimension, the urbanization quality of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in 2010- 2016 and its sub-dimension urbanization development show the spatial characteristics of ＂the eastern region is better than the central and western regions＂, while the ecological environment development is just the opposite： central and western regions are better than eastern regions. Finally, this paper makes prediction of the urbanization quality of 2017-2022： the quality of urbanization in the Yangtze River Economic Belt will show a steady upward trend.
作者
周正柱
ZHOU Zheng-zhu(School of Economics ＆ Management,Shanghai University of Applied Technology,Shanghai,201418)
出处
《深圳大学学报（人文社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第4期62-71,共10页
Journal of Shenzhen University：Humanities & Social Sciences
基金
国家社科基金项目"长江经济带城镇化与生态环境耦合协调评价及其发展机制创新研究"(16BSH033)
关键词
长江经济带
城镇化质量
生态环境
时空格局演变
预测
Yangtze River Economic Belt
urbanization quality
ecological environment
temporal and spatial pattern evolution
prediction
