摘要
以国家统计局全国1990—2015人均GDP数据为研究样本区间,对数据进行单项预测,即对数据进行指数预测和指数平滑预测,引入其他变量进行多元回归预测。将3种单项预测综合考虑,建立基于IOWA算子的组合预测模型。通过计算比较相应的预测值和预测精度,从而比较各模型精确程度。从实验结果可知,运用IOWA算子组合最为合理。最后通过建立的组合预测模型预测我国2016—2020的人均GDP值。
Taking the National Bureau of Statistics data of 1990-2015 GDP per capita as research sample,this paper uses the data to make a single forecast,which is the exponential forcasting and exponential smooth forecasting,by introducing other variables for multiple regression prediction.Then IOWA operator is introduced to establish a combined forecasting model based on IOWA operator.By calculating the corresponding prediction and prediction accuracy,the accuracy of each model can be compared.It can be seen from the experimental results that the combination of IOWA operators is the most reasonable.Finally,this paper forecasts the per capita GDP of our country from 2016 to 2020 through the use of the combined forecasting model.
作者
缪萍萍
MIAO Pingping(School of Statistics and Applied Mathematics,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233030,China)
出处
《黑龙江工程学院学报》
CAS
2018年第3期51-54,58,共5页
Journal of Heilongjiang Institute of Technology
关键词
IOWA算子
人均GDP
指数平滑
组合预测
IOWA operator
per capita GDP
exponential smoothing
combined forecasting
