摘要
选取人均GDP超过1万美元的中国九省市的经济增长情况与化石能源消费碳排放做为研究对象。首先分析1995—2015年九省市经济增长与地区碳排放的脱钩状态。进一步构建碳排放增长率与人均GDP增长率的面板数据库兹涅茨模型。结果表明:九省市经济增长与碳排放已经出现脱钩关系,并且关系逐渐强化;地区经济增长与碳排放和碳强度呈现环境库兹涅茨"倒N型"曲线,表明九省市的经济增长与碳排放之间的关系存在两个拐点,但是最终会往经济处于增长而碳排放量处于下降的良好态势发展。此外技术进步效应和结构效应对碳排放和碳强度产生显著的影响,提高技术研发水平有利于控制地区二氧化碳的排放,而增加第二产业比重则会使得地区碳排放增加。
The economic growth of nine regions in China with a per capita GDP of more than 10,0005 and the carbon emissions from fossil energy consumption were selected as the research object. First, we analyzed the ＇decoupling of economic growth and regional carbon emissions in nine provinces from 1995 to 2015. It further builds a panel database Zenetz model of carbon emission growth rate and per capita GDP growth rate. The results show that the economic growth and carbon emissions in the nine regions have been decoupled, and the relationship has been gradually strengthened; regional economic growth and carbon emissions and carbon intensity show an environmental Knznets ＂inverted N＂ curve, indicating that the economic growth in the nine provinces displays two inflection points in the relationship between carbon emissions, but they will eventually develop in a good direction where the economy is growing and carbon emissions are falling. In addition, the effects of technological advances and structural effects have a significant impact on carbon emissions and carbon intensity. Increasing technological R＆D levels will help control regional carbon dioxide emissions, while increasing the share of the secondary industry will increase regional carbon emissions.
作者
刘芳芳
黄巧萍
刘伟平
LIU Fangfang;HUANG Qiaoping;LIU Weiping(College of Economies,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou 350002,Fujian,China)
出处
《中南林业科技大学学报（社会科学版）》
2018年第4期20-26,35,共8页
Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology（Social Sciences）
基金
国家社科基金重大项目"全面深化改革背景下的完善农村集体林权制度改革研究"(16ZDA024)
