摘要
寒害是海南岛橡胶面临的主要气象灾害之一,开展橡胶寒害风险区划能够有效提高海南岛橡胶寒害防御能力。根据海南岛1964—2016年的气象资料和1988—2016年橡胶种植面积、产量、社会经济等数据,通过构建橡胶寒害指数和台风灾害指数,实现了橡胶寒害减产率的分离,基于风险形成的机理,选择橡胶寒害的致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体脆弱性和防灾减灾能力4个因子,建立海南岛橡胶寒害风险评估模型,计算橡胶寒害风险指数,并按自然断点法划分为5个风险等级。结果表明:海南岛橡胶寒害风险总体呈现西北部和中部较高,其他沿海地区较低的特征;西北部临高风险最高,其次为中部五指山地区;西南部东方、乐东沿海地区,以及北部海口、文昌风险最低;南部三亚和陵水无寒害风险。
Chilling injury is one of the main meteorological disasters to Hevea brasiliensis in Hainan Island. Risk zonation of chilling injury would effectively improve the prevention capability of H. brasiliensis from chilling injury. With the meteorological data from 1964 to 2016,H. brasiliensis cultivation area,yield,and social-economic data from 1988 to 2016,four factors of chilling injury（ chanciness of disaster-causing factors,sensitivity of disaster-inducing environment,vulnerability of disaster-affected bodies,and capability of disaster prevention and reduction） were selected to construct the risk assessment model of chilling injury on H. brasiliensis based on the risk formation mechanism. The risk index of chilling injury to H. brasiliensis was calculated and five grades of risk were classified following the natural breakpoint method. The results indicated that the risk of chilling injury was higher in northwestern and central parts than in other coastal areas. Lingao area had the highest risk,followed by Wuzhishan mountain area in central part.The coastal areas of Dongfang and Ledong of southwestern parts,and Haikou and Wenchang in north part had the lowest risk. There was no chilling injury risk in Sanya and Lingshui.
作者
张亚杰
张京红
陈升孛
黄海静
ZHANG Ya-jie;ZHANG Jing-hong;CHEN Sheng-bei;HUANG Hai-jing(Hainan Climate Center,Haikou 570203,China;Hainan Meteorological Service Center,Haikou 570203,China;Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province,Haikou 570203,China）.)
出处
《生态学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第9期2808-2814,共7页
Chinese Journal of Ecology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41675113)
海南省气象局项目(HNQXJS201605、HNQXQN201501)资助
关键词
橡胶
寒害
风险区划
海南岛
Hevea brasiliensis
chilling injury
risk zonation
Hainan Island.
