摘要
基于规模化新能源出力带来的各种问题，建立风光三大评价指标，并采用多时空场景划分的方式进行基地出力特性分析；建立新能源基地三维出力模型，并应用于规模化新能源出力预测领域。研究发现，基地能源中，风电-光伏存在明显的互补性。在现有外送能力有限的情况下，大幅提高光伏基地上网比例，可从电源侧缓解“弃风弃光”问题。基于大量数据分析得到的新能源基地三维出力模型与气象数据结合，可对基地出力进行一段时间的预测，为区域电网新能源调度提供可靠参考。
The concept of large-scale renewable power basement was proposed. Three different evaluation indexes were created, which were based on problems caused by large-scale renewable power. Output characteristics of the basement were analyzed in different time and space. 3D Output model of the renewable power basement was built, which is used in output prediction of large-scale renewable power. Study found the complementarities and seasonality of the wind-solar power basement. Largely increasing the capability of wind power basement can resolve wind curtailment and solar curtailment. Renewable power basement output can be predicted by the 3D Output model and mass meteorological data, which provide a reference for regional renewable power grid dispatching.
作者
郑可轲
牛玉广
Zheng Keke, Niu Yuguang(State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources （North China Electric Power University ） Beijing 102206, China)
出处
《太阳能学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第9期2591-2598,共8页
Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica
基金
国家重点基础研究发展(973)计划(2012CB215203)
内蒙古科技项目(合同号:ZB-YBHT-2015-DT0401-0306)
关键词
新能源发电基地
多时空场景
指标体系
三维出力模型
renewable energy basement
multiple spatial and temporal scene
indexes system
3D output model
