摘要
基于2014年中国能源资源可采储量、现有技术水平等条件,采用Hubbert模型对未来中国一次能源开发利用潜力做出分析.研究结果表明:可再生能源装机量增速达到峰值后继续保持高度,但化石能源开采量峰值呈现下降趋势;煤炭、石油、天然气和页岩气产量峰值将分别出现在2027年、2023年、2024年、2055年,峰值产量分别为35.41、3.02、2.53、10.26亿t标准煤;水电、风电、太阳能装机容量增速最快点将分别在2013年、2049年、2044年出现,装机容量分别为2.88、16.75、27.2亿kW.
The non-renewability of fossil energy and limited land for renewable energy exploitation has given rise to an upper limit of energy resource development. To support the new normal of Chinese economy, the potential of energy exploitation is estimated in the aspects of the peak time and the peak value of fossil energy and installed capacity of renewable energy. On the basis of energy workable reserves and exiting technology level, the paper analyses the exploitation potential of Chinese primary energy with the Hubbert model. The results are as following： when the growth rate of renewable energy reaches the maximum, the installed capacity would be still increasing; While the supply of fossil energy would decrease after peak, the peak time points for coal, oil, gas and shale gas are 2 027, 2 023, 2 024 and 2 025 respectively; the peak values are 35.41, 3.02, 2.53, and 10.26 million tons of coal equivalent; the largest growth time points for installed capacity of hydropower, wind power and solar power are 2 013, 2 049 and 2 044 respectively; and the values are 0.288, 1.675, and 2.72 billion kilowatts.
作者
龙厚印
林琳
刘卫东
LONG Hou-yin;LIN Lin;LIU Wei-dong(School of Economics and Management,Ningde Normal University,Ningde,Fujian 352100,China;Gantang People＇s Municipality in Fu＇an,Ningde,Fujian 355009,China;State Grid Zhejaing Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310008,China)
出处
《宁德师范学院学报（自然科学版）》
2018年第3期260-267,共8页
Journal of Ningde Normal University(Natural Science)
基金
宁德师范学院中青年项目(2017Q207)
宁德师范学院重大项目培育计划(2017ZDS09)
宁德师范学院引进人才项目(2017Y08)
