摘要
去冬今春我国发生大面积"气荒",上游资源出现临时性、突发性供应缺口,资源短供导致下游产业用气成本剧烈波动,严重影响了我国天然气产业的健康发展。鉴于供需失衡对全产业链造成的严重影响,目前极有必要对我国供暖季天然气供需进行深入分析,并对上游供应扩能及下游消费进行优化。文章针对去冬今春"气荒"的产生原因及具体发展过程进行了详细剖析,结合2018年上半年全国能源及电力消费增速,对今冬明春我国天然气供需形势进行了预判,同时结合天然气产业发展现状,提出了产供储销体系优化建议,以期缓解国内天然气供需失衡问题。
From last winter to this spring, China suffered massive gas shortage, with abrupt supply disruption leading to wild cost fluctuation in industrial gas uses, having serious influence upon healthy development of China＇s natural gas industry. Given the serious influence of the gas supply-demand unbalance upon whole industry chain, now it is extremely necessary to ascertain gas supply and demand in China＇s heating season, and optimize upstream supply capacity expansion and downstream consumption. This paper gives a detailed analysis on the cause and evolution of gas shortage from last winter to this spring, forecasts China＇s gas supply-demand situation from this winter to next spring in the context of faster growth of China＇s energy and electric power consumption in the first half of 2018, and meanwhile puts forward optimization suggestions for the gas production-supply-storage-sales system in line with the current status of gas industry, so as to ease domestic gas supply-demand unbalance.
作者
张大为
刘慧
Zhang Dawei;Liu Hui(Sinopec Gas Company South China Gas Sales Center,Guangzhou Guangdong 510000,China)
出处
《当代石油石化》
CAS
2018年第10期16-21,共6页
Petroleum & Petrochemical Today
关键词
“气荒”成因
供需趋势预测
产业优化建议
cause of gas shortage
supply-demand trend prediction
industrial optimization suggestion
