摘要
基于我国2008—2017年的季度时间序列数据,采用向量自回归模型,进行格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解来探讨煤价涨跌对总体物价水平的不对称效应。结果显示,煤价下跌比上涨会更为显著地影响通货膨胀。此外,随着PPI到CPI的过度,通货膨胀的影响力在后期将会减弱,这也证实了PPI对煤价震荡的反应比CPI更为敏感。针对如何避免煤价震荡对总体物价水平造成的极度波动提出对策建议。
In order to analyze the influence of coal price fluctuation,the vector autoregressive model was applied to run the Granger causality test,the impulse response and the variance decomposition analysis to discuss the asymmetry effect of the overall price level under the influence of coal price fluctuation,based on the quarterly time series data from 2008 to2017. The results indicate that the decline of the coal prices affect the inflation more significantly than the increase. In addition,with the transition from PPI to CPI,the impact of inflation will be weakened in the long term,which also confirms the PPI response more sensitively to coal price shocks than CPI. A series of countermeasures and suggestions were also offered on how to avoid the extreme fluctuation on the overall price level caused by the coal price shock according to this analysis.
作者
张倩茹
王汉斌
ZHANG Qian-ru;WANG Han-bin(Taiyuan University of Technology,Taiyuan 030024,China)
出处
《煤炭工程》
北大核心
2018年第10期190-195,共6页
Coal Engineering
基金
山西高等学校人文社会科学重点研究基地项目"资源型经济转型背景下煤矿安全生产依法监管体系研究"(2014315)
