摘要
通过风洞试验,对山东省不同区域不同风向日光温室模型的顶端和端面风压系数进行测定,利用公式推导出日光温室各区域发生风灾的临界风速,进而得到风灾等级指标;利用山东省120个自动气象监测站逐日最大风速观测资料,结合日光温室风灾等级指标,分析了2006—2015年山东省风灾的时间变化特征,并利用ArcGIS空间分析模块分析了山东省风灾的空间分布特征;基于信息扩散理论,通过计算不同地区不同等级风灾发生时间的风险概率,对山东省日光温室风灾进行风险评估。结果表明:山东省日光温室风灾的临界风速为18.9 m·s-1; 2006—2015年山东省日光温室生产季内(11月至翌年4月)风灾以轻度灾害为主,且主要发生在春季3月和4月,风灾呈东多西少、北多南少的空间分布特征;风灾高发区主要分布在山东半岛、鲁西北大部、鲁中东部及鲁东南部分地区,风灾发生的概率为80.1%以上,本文研究结果可以为日光温室生产的风灾防御提供科学依据。
Wind tunnel test was used to measure the surface wind pressure coefficient of solar greenhouse under different wind direction angles.The critical wind speed of each part of solar greenhouse leading to the occurrence of wind disaster was obtained and used to analyze wind disaster index.Using 120 auto-observed meteorological stations data of daily maximum wind speed,as well as the wind disaster index,the inter-annual variation and inter-monthly variation of occurring number of wind disaster from 2006 to 2015 were analyzed.Using ArcGIS spatial analysis module,spatial distribution of wind disaster was studied.Risk assessment of wind disaster of greenhouse in Shandong province was performed by calculating wind disaster risk probability of different levels for all regions based on information dissemination theory.The results show that the critical wind speed of solar greenhouse wind disaster is 18.9 m·s-1.The main type of solar greenhouse wind disaster in Shandong province is light-level wind disaster during 2006 to 2015.Spring is the season with more disasters.The spatial distribution characteristic of wind disaster shows that more disasters occur in the East （North） while less in the West （South） of Shandong province.The wind disaster occurs mainly in the peninsula of Shandong province,the most part of north-west of Shandong province,the middle part in east of Shandong province,and some parts of south-east of Shandong province.The risk probability of wind disaster of these regions is more than 80.1%.Our study provides some helpful scientific advices for protecting solar greenhouse production.
作者
李楠
薛晓萍
李鸿怡
LI Nan;XUE Xiao-ping;LI Hong-yi(Shandong Provincial Climate Center,Ji＇nan 250031,China)
出处
《气象与环境学报》
2018年第5期149-155,共7页
Journal of Meteorology and Environment
基金
山东省气象局气象科学技术研究项目(2016sdqxm03)
"十二五"农村领域国家科技计划项目(2014BAD10B07)共同资助
关键词
日光温室
风灾
风险评估
信息扩散
Solar greenhouse
Wind disaster
Risk assessment
Information dissemination theory
